Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future

This PhD thesis examines the historical relationship between climate impacts and violent conflict to determine if climate change will increase future conflict prevalence. The author argues that the effects of climate shocks are context-dependent, primarily impacting communal conflicts in resource-scarce areas with poor government services, and emphasizes that continued socio-economic development is essential to mitigating future climate-driven conflict.

• The impact of climate shocks on violent conflict is not uniform but is context dependent, specifically manifesting in communal conflicts within resource-scarce regions where government services are absent and conflicts are tied to climate-sensitive resources.
• Maintaining and supporting the positive socio-economic development seen in many poor and conflict-prone states over the last 20 years is critical for ensuring that the influence of climate change and climate shocks on violent conflict remains as low as it has been in recent decades.

APA

Vestby, J. (2018). Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://www.prio.org/publications/10986

Chicago

Vestby, Jonas. Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2018. https://www.prio.org/publications/10986.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Vestby |first1=Jonas |title=Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2018 |url=https://www.prio.org/publications/10986 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vestby2018climate, author = {Vestby, Jonas}, title = {{Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2018}, url = {https://www.prio.org/publications/10986}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }