Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future

The document argues that the relationship between climate shocks and violent conflict is context-dependent, primarily affecting communal conflicts in resource-scarce areas with poor government services. It suggests that maintaining socio-economic development in poor, conflict-prone states is essential to minimizing the future impact of climate change on violent conflict.

• The effects of climate shocks on conflict are not uniform but are context dependent, specifically manifesting in communal conflicts within resource-scarce regions that lack government services and where conflicts relate to climate-sensitive resources.
• Continuing the positive socio-economic development seen in many poor and conflict-affected states over the last 20 years is critical for keeping the influence of climate change and climate shocks on violent conflict at the low levels observed in recent decades.

APA

Vestby, J. (2018). Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://www.prio.org/publications/10986

Chicago

Vestby, Jonas. Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2018. https://www.prio.org/publications/10986.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Vestby |first1=Jonas |title=Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2018 |url=https://www.prio.org/publications/10986 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vestby2018climate, author = {Vestby, Jonas}, title = {{Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2018}, url = {https://www.prio.org/publications/10986}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }