The Tyranny of Metrics, the Power of Stories and Epistemic Diplomacy

This working paper examines the tension between quantitative 'precisionism' and qualitative 'groundtruthing' in climate-risk mapping within the global South, proposing a framework called 'epistemic diplomacy' to integrate both evidence types for more equitable and effective policy interventions.

• Climate-risk mapping in the global South is currently divided between 'precisionism'—which utilizes indices and dashboards for speed and comparability—and 'groundtruthing'—which uses ethnography and lived narratives. Precisionism can create a 'metrics mirage' that ignores inequality and misdiagnoses the needs of marginalized populations, particularly those in informal settlements with insecure tenure or gendered vulnerabilities. Conversely, groundtruthing often fails to scale or gain traction within indicator-driven bureaucratic and economic systems, leading to poorly targeted interventions.
• The authors propose 'epistemic diplomacy' as a procedural, power-aware method to integrate quantitative and qualitative evidence under 'post-normal conditions' characterized by urgent timelines, high stakes, disputed values, and uncertain facts. This framework is based on five principles: pluralism, power-awareness, procedural clarity, proportionality, and public value. It employs a three-phase, ten-step operating model that includes co-framing, mixed evidence generation with triangulation, and joint interpretation using equity filters.
• To prevent extraction and ensure accountability, the proposed framework includes governance safeguards such as authorship equity, iterative consent, stewardship, anti-tokenism requirements, and versioning. The paper suggests pairing specific methods—such as combining hydraulic models with community story-maps or heat sensors with social diaries—to create 'boundary objects' and 'procedural compacts' that translate contested evidence into policy-ready tools like trigger matrices and managed-retreat briefs.

APA

Bhanye, J., & Paradza, G. (2025). The Tyranny of Metrics, the Power of Stories and Epistemic Diplomacy. Public Affairs Research Institute. https://pari.org.za/working-paper-the-tyranny-of-metrics-the-power-of-stories-and-epistemic-diplomacy/

Chicago

Bhanye, Johannes, and Gaynor Paradza. The Tyranny of Metrics, the Power of Stories and Epistemic Diplomacy. Public Affairs Research Institute, 2025. https://pari.org.za/working-paper-the-tyranny-of-metrics-the-power-of-stories-and-epistemic-diplomacy/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bhanye |first1=Johannes |last2=Paradza |first2=Gaynor |title=The Tyranny of Metrics, the Power of Stories and Epistemic Diplomacy |publisher=Public Affairs Research Institute |date=5 December 2025 |url=https://pari.org.za/working-paper-the-tyranny-of-metrics-the-power-of-stories-and-epistemic-diplomacy/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bhanye2025tyranny, author = {Bhanye, Johannes and Paradza, Gaynor}, title = {{The Tyranny of Metrics, the Power of Stories and Epistemic Diplomacy}}, institution = {Public Affairs Research Institute}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://pari.org.za/working-paper-the-tyranny-of-metrics-the-power-of-stories-and-epistemic-diplomacy/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }