Wind and Solar benchmarks for a 1.5ºC world

To align with a 1.5°C pathway, the EU must increase wind and solar generation by a factor of 2 to 2.5 by 2030, reaching 1,618–1,861 TWh. This requires adding nearly 700 GW of new capacity (580 GW solar, 120 GW wind) by 2030. While current wind rollout is broadly consistent with these benchmarks, solar deployment is lagging, with a projected capacity gap of almost 160 GW by 2030. The report argues that fossil fuels must exit the EU power sector by 2035, with wind and solar providing 86% of electricity generation by 2050.

• To align with a 1.5°C-consistent pathway, EU wind and solar generation must grow by a factor of approximately two to two and a half by 2030, increasing from 731 TWh in 2023 to between 1,618 and 1,861 TWh.
• Achieving 1.5°C alignment requires nearly 700 GW of new installed capacity by 2030, consisting of 580 GW of solar and 120 GW of wind. This necessitates average annual additions of 78 GW/yr for solar and 20 GW/yr for wind from 2023 to 2030.
• Current policy and market conditions indicate that wind capacity additions are broadly aligned with 1.5°C requirements, but solar rollout is insufficient, with only 81% of the required capacity expected to be installed by 2030, leaving a gap of almost 160 GW.
• To remain consistent with 1.5°C, the EU must phase out all fossil fuel generation from its power sector by 2035, with fossil fuel generation falling by 52% to 81% between 2021 and 2030.
• By 2050, wind and solar are projected to provide over 86% of the EU's total electricity generation, with total capacity needing to exceed 3,100 GW.
• The transition to a high-renewable system will move the EU into 'Phase D' by 2030, where wind and solar make up 55% of the generation mix. This phase requires expanded demand response, stronger interconnections, and large-scale energy storage to maintain stability as VRE availability frequently exceeds demand.

APA

Cerny, C., Razak, F. A., Ficara, T., Grant, N., Kanduth, A., Pröpper, A., Riaz, D., Rodriguez, B. S., Waterton, O., Welder, L., Ladrero, P. B., Daly, E., de Vivero, G., Hagemann, M., Kumar, C. H., & Hecke, J. (2026). Wind and Solar benchmarks for a 1.5ºC world. NewClimate Institute. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1397/CAT_WNSbenchmarks_EU.pdf

Chicago

Cerny, Corbin, Fadil Abdul Razak, Tommaso Ficara, Neil Grant, Anna Kanduth, Alexandra Pröpper, Danial Riaz, et al. Wind and Solar benchmarks for a 1.5ºC world. NewClimate Institute, 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1397/CAT_WNSbenchmarks_EU.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{cerny2026wind, author = {Cerny, Corbin and Razak, Fadil Abdul and Ficara, Tommaso and Grant, Neil and Kanduth, Anna and Pröpper, Alexandra and Riaz, Danial and Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano and Waterton, Olivia and Welder, Lara and Ladrero, Pablo Blasco and Daly, Emily and de Vivero, Gustavo and Hagemann, Markus and Kumar, Chetna Hareesh and Hecke, Judit}, title = {{Wind and Solar benchmarks for a 1.5ºC world}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1397/CAT_WNSbenchmarks_EU.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }