Warming Projections Global Update

The December 2023 update finds that global warming projections have stalled, with current policies leading to 2.7°C of warming by 2100. Even the most optimistic scenario, including all announced targets, results in 1.8°C, exceeding the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. The report highlights a growing implementation gap and warns that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS), e-fuels, and carbon offsets are 'false solutions' that delay necessary deep emission cuts. It urges governments to submit 1.5°C-aligned 2035 targets by February 2025 and to commit to a complete phase-out of fossil fuels.

• Current global policies and actions are projected to result in 2.7°C of warming by 2100, a figure that has remained unchanged since 2021.
• Warming projections based solely on 2030 NDC targets have increased by 0.1°C since last year, now estimated at 2.5°C by the end of the century.
• The 'Optimistic scenario', which assumes full implementation of all announced targets including net-zero targets, results in 1.8°C of warming, which is still above the 1.5°C limit.
• The report identifies several 'false solutions' promoted by the fossil fuel industry and some governments that prolong fossil fuel use, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), e-fuels for cars, hydrogen for gas boilers, and ammonia co-firing in coal plants.
• There is a significant reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sinks to meet net-zero targets; for 28 countries covering 81% of 2019 emissions, remaining emissions in target years are estimated at 16–20% of 2019 levels.
• The report argues that any agreement at COP28 must explicitly commit to a 'phase out' of all fossil fuels, rather than a 'phase down' or a phase-out of only 'unabated' fossil fuels.
• To keep the 1.5°C goal viable, the report states that global emissions must peak before 2025, be halved by 2030, and fossil fuel production must be cut by 40% by 2030.

APA

Geiges, A., Hare, B., Fyson, C., Stockwell, C., Ramalope, D., Heck, S., Missirliu, A., Fekete, H., Moisio, M., Höhne, N., Hans, F., & Tumiwa, F. (2023). Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1187/CAT_2023-12-05_GlobalUpdate_COP28.pdf

Chicago

Geiges, Andreas, Bill Hare, Claire Fyson, Claire Stockwell, Deborah Ramalope, Sarah Heck, Ana Missirliu, et al. Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute, 2023. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1187/CAT_2023-12-05_GlobalUpdate_COP28.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{geiges2023warming, author = {Geiges, Andreas and Hare, Bill and Fyson, Claire and Stockwell, Claire and Ramalope, Deborah and Heck, Sarah and Missirliu, Ana and Fekete, Hanna and Moisio, Mia and Höhne, Niklas and Hans, Frederic and Tumiwa, Fabby}, title = {{Warming Projections Global Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1187/CAT_2023-12-05_GlobalUpdate_COP28.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }