Analysis of Electricity Demand in North Sumatra Province and the Planned Batang Toru Hydroelectric Power Plant’s Impacts

The report concludes that the Batang Toru hydroelectric project is an unnecessary endeavor that threatens the Tapanuli orangutan with extinction. It finds that North Sumatra already has a power surplus and that planned gas, geothermal, and other hydroelectric projects render Batang Toru's peak and baseload power redundant. Furthermore, the report argues that the project's claims regarding CO2 emission reductions and balance of payments relief are significantly inflated or incorrect, while highlighting the operational risks associated with the contractor, Sinohydro.

• North Sumatra province has transitioned from an energy deficit to a surplus, with electricity availability exceeding peak demand as of 2017, making the Batang Toru dam unnecessary for meeting current regional energy needs.
• The project's claimed CO2 emission reductions of 1.6 to 2.2 million tons per year are overestimates; actual reductions would likely be between 700,000 and 1.1 million tons depending on whether it replaces combined cycle or simple cycle gas plants.
• Batang Toru is not a pure peak power producer; only 52.6% of its output is produced during peak hours, while 47.4% is baseload power.
• The project's peak power capacity is redundant due to an existing 240 MW floating gas plant and the planned 800 MW Sumbagut 1, 3 and 4 combined cycle natural gas project.
• The project's baseload power is rendered superfluous by the 440 MW Pangkalan Susu coal plant and the 330 MW Sarulla geothermal plant, with further geothermal expansions planned at Sarulla and Sorik Marapi.
• Claims that the dam will improve Indonesia's balance of payments by replacing imported diesel are flawed, as the project is likely to displace gas-fired plants and involves high capital costs that result in dollar outflows to Chinese entities.
• The project's contractor, Sinohydro, has a global history of substandard practices, cost overruns, and corruption in projects across Armenia, Botswana, Ecuador, Indonesia, Uganda, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.
• The construction of the dam threatens the Tapanuli orangutan, a species of fewer than 800 individuals, by potentially killing or genetically isolating over 70 individuals in the project's area of influence.
• Future electricity demand forecasts in the RUPTL are likely overestimates; using more realistic assumptions, North Sumatra's power supply is projected to be twice the peak demand from 2024 onward, even without Batang Toru.

APA

Mighty Earth (2020). Analysis of Electricity Demand in North Sumatra Province and the Planned Batang Toru Hydroelectric Power Plant’s Impacts. https://www.mightyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/Batang_Toru_Analysis_English-final.pdf

Chicago

Mighty Earth. Analysis of Electricity Demand in North Sumatra Province and the Planned Batang Toru Hydroelectric Power Plant’s Impacts. 2020. https://www.mightyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/Batang_Toru_Analysis_English-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Mighty Earth |title=Analysis of Electricity Demand in North Sumatra Province and the Planned Batang Toru Hydroelectric Power Plant’s Impacts |date=January 2020 |url=https://www.mightyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/Batang_Toru_Analysis_English-final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mightyearth2020analysis, author = {{Mighty Earth}}, title = {{Analysis of Electricity Demand in North Sumatra Province and the Planned Batang Toru Hydroelectric Power Plant’s Impacts}}, institution = {Mighty Earth}, year = {2020}, month = jan, url = {https://www.mightyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/Batang_Toru_Analysis_English-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }