Analysing South Africa’s 2014 election results

The 2014 South African elections saw the ANC retain power with 62.2% of the vote, though it experienced a real loss of 10.41% when controlling for registered voter growth. The DA increased its national vote share to 22.23%, consolidating its position as the official opposition, while the newly formed EFF secured 6.35% of the national vote and became the official opposition in Limpopo and the North West. The analysis highlights significant ANC losses in Gauteng and predicts highly competitive 2016 local government races in the City of Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Nelson Mandela Bay.

• The African National Congress (ANC) won 62.2 per cent of the votes cast, but its support declined when adjusted for population growth. While the party lost 213,827 votes (a 1.84 per cent real loss), this represents a "real loss of 10,41 per cent" when controlling for the 2.2 million voters added to the roll since 2009.
• The ANC's national victory was bolstered by strong performance in KwaZulu-Natal, which offset losses in other provinces. In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC won 274,579 more votes than in 2009, whereas it lost 292,265 votes in Gauteng to a combination of the DA, the EFF, and voter apathy.
• There is evidence of strategic voting in Gauteng, where some ANC supporters split their votes between national and provincial ballots. The ANC won 173,448 fewer votes in the Gauteng provincial race than it did in the national race within the same province.
• The Democratic Alliance (DA) increased its national vote share to 22.23 per cent, gaining over 1.1 million votes. However, the party struggled to attract black voters, winning only 6 per cent of the black vote according to its own polling.
• The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) achieved a significant entry into politics for a party formed less than a year prior, winning 6.35 per cent of the national vote. The EFF became the official opposition in the North West and Limpopo provinces.
• The ANC faces significant challenges in upcoming 2016 local government elections in three major metropolitan municipalities. In Johannesburg, the ANC's vote decreased by 11.25 per cent in real terms (20.31 per cent when controlling for registered voters); in Tshwane, it lost 5.25 per cent (24.71 per cent controlling for growth); and in Nelson Mandela Bay, it lost 5 per cent (9.4 per cent controlling for growth).

APA

Faull, J. (2014). Analysing South Africa’s 2014 election results. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief54_11Jun2014.pdf

Chicago

Faull, Jonathan. Analysing South Africa’s 2014 election results. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief54_11Jun2014.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Faull |first1=Jonathan |title=Analysing South Africa’s 2014 election results |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief54_11Jun2014.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{faull2014analysing, author = {Faull, Jonathan}, title = {{Analysing South Africa’s 2014 election results}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBrief54_11Jun2014.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }