Breathing space: The impact of the EU-Turkey deal on irregular migration

The EU-Turkey deal significantly reduced sea crossings to Greece but shifted smuggling activities toward air travel and document fraud in Istanbul. While the deal provided temporary 'breathing space,' the paper argues it is unsustainable due to Turkey's internal political instability, economic pressures from hosting 2.75 million refugees, and the lack of a credible EU alternative.

• The EU-Turkey agreement, involving a €6 billion payment from the EU to Turkey, led to a dramatic decrease in irregular sea crossings from Turkey to the Greek islands by implementing a return scheme for illegal arrivals and increasing border security.
• The decline in sea crossings was not solely due to the EU-Turkey deal; the closure of the Balkan route had already begun to deter asylum seekers before the agreement took effect in mid-March 2016.
• The smuggling industry has re-oriented itself toward air travel and document fraud, particularly in Istanbul, as a 'full-package' alternative to the now-risky sea and land routes.
• Human smuggling in Turkey is deeply integrated with organised crime and state corruption, with some operations utilizing members of the Jandarma (military police) to ensure safe passage.
• The Syrian-Turkish land border has evolved into a complex war economy where smuggling of fuel, cigarettes, and people is managed by various groups, including Kurdish separatists and ISIS, who charge taxes for territorial passage.
• Turkey faces severe economic and security pressures from hosting approximately 2.75 million registered refugees, with the government estimating costs of US$500 million per month.
• The closure of the Syria-Turkey border curtailed ISIS's access to funds and fighters, contributing to a shift where the group began targeting Turkish cities with terrorist attacks in 2016.
• The EU-Turkey deal is considered fragile and potentially unsustainable because the EU has failed to effectively process returns from Greece and Turkey's government has threatened to terminate the agreement.

APA

Reitano, T., & Micallef, M. (2016). Breathing space: The impact of the EU-Turkey deal on irregular migration. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper297.pdf

Chicago

Reitano, Tuesday, and Mark Micallef. Breathing space: The impact of the EU-Turkey deal on irregular migration. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper297.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Reitano |first1=Tuesday |last2=Micallef |first2=Mark |title=Breathing space: The impact of the EU-Turkey deal on irregular migration |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper297.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{reitano2016breathing, author = {Reitano, Tuesday and Micallef, Mark}, title = {{Breathing space: The impact of the EU-Turkey deal on irregular migration}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper297.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }