Planning for peace

The document examines Mozambique's transition from civil war to sustainable peace, focusing on five key areas: disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR), economic and social development, decentralisation, justice, and natural resource investment. It argues that while government planning capacity has increased, implementation and monitoring remain weak, and short-term political gains often override long-term stability. The paper highlights the critical role of civil society in filling gaps left by the state and international actors, and warns that the management of new natural gas wealth and high national debt could either consolidate peace or fuel renewed conflict.

• Peacebuilding in Mozambique has been a non-linear process where setbacks, such as the violence in 2013-14 and 2016, provided opportunities to reconfigure political positions and increase buy-in from various actors.
• The country's peacebuilding efforts were not guided by a single overarching strategic plan but occurred through a combination of deliberate design and chance, with various sectoral frameworks indirectly supporting wider peace goals.
• Government capacity for strategic planning has improved, evidenced by the transition from donor-driven Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PARPAs) to nationally owned five-year plans (PQGs), although the justice sector remains a notable exception with piecemeal planning.
• There is a significant gap between the creation of strategic plans and their actual implementation, largely due to a lack of detailed monitoring and evaluation mechanisms and technical capacity.
• The government has occasionally prioritised short-term political gains over long-term stability, as seen in the 'Seven Million Fund', which was diverted from local development projects to distribute money for political points.
• International donors have historically influenced agenda-setting and capacity development, particularly in decentralisation, but have gradually reduced direct peacebuilding support, leading to 'peacebuilding fatigue'.
• Civil society organisations, including religious leaders and groups like JustaPaz and FOMICRES, played a vital role in filling gaps in the DDR process and mediating conflicts when state and UN efforts were insufficient.
• Decentralisation is viewed as a key tool for political inclusivity and reducing violence, but progress is hindered by the central government's reluctance to relinquish power and the politicisation of local funds.
• The justice sector suffers from a lack of coordination and local ownership, with a widespread perception of institutional corruption that undermines the credibility of government reforms and fuels social discontent.
• The discovery of massive natural gas reserves presents both an opportunity for development and a risk of instability, as competition for resource revenues may escalate tensions between FRELIMO and RENAMO.
• Mozambique faces a severe debt crisis, with public debt projected to exceed 60% of GDP, which may lead the government to accept short-sighted investment terms that ignore social and political risks.

APA

Reppell, L., Rozen, J., & de Carvalho, G. (2016). Planning for peace. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper291.pdf

Chicago

Reppell, Lisa, Jonathan Rozen, and Gustavo de Carvalho. Planning for peace. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper291.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Reppell |first1=Lisa |last2=Rozen |first2=Jonathan |last3=de Carvalho |first3=Gustavo |title=Planning for peace |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper291.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{reppell2016planning, author = {Reppell, Lisa and Rozen, Jonathan and de Carvalho, Gustavo}, title = {{Planning for peace}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper291.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }