Risks ahead of the constitutional referendum in Burkina Faso

The report examines the instability in Burkina Faso stemming from President Blaise Compaoré's efforts to amend Article 37 of the constitution to extend his presidency. It highlights a fragile socio-economic environment, a significant rift within the ruling Congrès pour la démocratie et le progrès (CDP) party leading to the creation of the Mouvement du people pour le progrès (MPP), and the potential for military intervention. The document notes that while the CDP remains the most powerful political force, the opposition and civil society have shown an unprecedented capacity for mobilization. Mediation efforts by domestic figures and Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara have largely failed due to a lack of trust and irreconcilable positions.

• Burkina Faso faces a fragile socio-economic context where high GDP growth—reaching 10% in 2012—has not benefited the general population, leaving poverty endemic and growth distribution unequal.
• The ruling party, Congrès pour la démocratie et le progrès (CDP), suffered a major blow in January 2014 when nearly 70 members, including key powerbrokers Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, Salif Diallo, and Simon Compaoré, resigned to form the Mouvement du people pour le progrès (MPP).
• The opposition and civil society have demonstrated an unprecedented ability to mobilize against the proposed amendment of Article 37, evidenced by massive rallies in January and May 2014.
• Despite internal dissent, the CDP remains the dominant political force with significant resources and control over the majority of parliamentary seats, local councillors, and mayors.
• There is a significant risk of military intervention if political instability persists, given the army's historical role in power and existing dissatisfaction within the ranks.
• Mediation attempts led by former president Jean-Baptiste Ouedraogo and Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara failed due to a lack of trust and the opposition's refusal to negotiate without guarantees from President Compaoré.

APA

Zounmenou, D., Assanvo, W., & Maiga, I. (2014). Risks ahead of the constitutional referendum in Burkina Faso. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS9.pdf

Chicago

Zounmenou, David, William Assanvo, and Ibrahim Maiga. Risks ahead of the constitutional referendum in Burkina Faso. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS9.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zounmenou |first1=David |last2=Assanvo |first2=William |last3=Maiga |first3=Ibrahim |title=Risks ahead of the constitutional referendum in Burkina Faso |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS9.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zounmenou2014risks, author = {Zounmenou, David and Assanvo, William and Maiga, Ibrahim}, title = {{Risks ahead of the constitutional referendum in Burkina Faso}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ECOWAS9.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }