Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 23

The document analyzes internal ANC power struggles, focusing on President Jacob Zuma's strategic appointments and cabinet reshuffles intended to secure his second term. It highlights the roles of rivals such as Kgalema Mothlante, Tokyo Sexwale, and the expelled Julius Malema, while noting a rise in public service protests and internal party instability.

• President Jacob Zuma's appointment of Mangwashi Phiyega as National Police Commissioner and a broader cabinet reshuffle are viewed as political moves to secure his second term as ANC president at the December conference in Mangaung. The appointment of Phiyega, who lacks senior police experience, is interpreted as a desire for a chief who is "totally reliant on him for this position."
• The demotion of Lindiwe Sisulu from Defense Minister to Minister of Public Affairs and Administration is characterized as a strategic move to neutralize her influence. Because of her family's status as "nobility" in the ANC, she is seen as a potential threat to Zuma's re-election; her new role is described as a "poisoned chalice" that will force her to handle difficult salary negotiations with unions.
• President Zuma avoided a Youth Day rally on 16 June 2012, marking the first time a President has missed the address since 1994. This absence is attributed to fears of "possible heckling" and protests. Zuma further limited the platform of rival Kgalema Mothlante by not appointing him to address the rally.
• External and internal opposition to Zuma is intensifying, with former ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema labeling the President a "dictator and tribalist" at a Limpopo conference. Additionally, Minister Tokyo Sexwale has warned that party leaders "will be changed at Mangaung" if they fail to engage with the youth.
• Internal ANC instability is evidenced by clashes between senior leaders Tony Yengeni and Blade Ndzimane, as well as a surge in public service protests. Between January and May 2012, South Africa averaged five protests every two days.

APA

Zounmenou, D., Atta-Assamoah, A., Motsamai, D., Dzinesa, G. A., Joala, R., Kok, N., & Warries, T. (2012). Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 23. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/19June2012CPRABrief.pdf

Chicago

Zounmenou, David, Andrew Atta-Assamoah, Dimpho Motsamai, Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa, Refiloe Joala, Naomi Kok, and Tarryn Warries. Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 23. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/19June2012CPRABrief.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{zounmenou2012conflict, author = {Zounmenou, David and Atta-Assamoah, Andrew and Motsamai, Dimpho and Dzinesa, Gwinyayi A. and Joala, Refiloe and Kok, Naomi and Warries, Tarryn}, title = {{Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 23}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/19June2012CPRABrief.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }