The ICC Decision on the Indictment of Sudan`s President and Possible Outcomes

The document analyzes the risks associated with the International Criminal Court's potential indictment of President Omar Al Bashir, including the possible collapse of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the destabilization of Sudan's internal political dynamics. It highlights tensions within the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and suggests that the Doha Agreement between the government and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) may be a strategic move to avoid indictment rather than a sustainable peace effort.

• An ICC arrest warrant for President Bashir could destabilize Sudan's internal politics and potentially lead to the collapse of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended one of Africa's longest armed conflicts. Southern Sudanese leaders, including President Salva Kiir, have expressed concern that such an indictment might signal the end of the CPA, which includes a planned 2011 referendum on unity or separation.
• The prospect of an indictment has increased internal tensions within the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), creating a divide between Bashir's loyalists and a rival camp including Second Vice President Ali Osman Taha and intelligence chief Salah Abdullah Gosh. A clash between these factions, both backed by the army, could result in a breakdown similar to the conflict in Darfur.
• The Doha Agreement between the Sudanese government and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) is viewed by some as a tactical effort by the government to avoid ICC indictments. The agreement is considered fragile because it neglects neighboring countries like Egypt, Chad, and Libya, and may cause other rebel factions to unite against JEM.
• There are concerns that an ICC warrant could trigger retaliatory attacks against civilians, aid organizations, and international peacekeepers, or lead the Sudanese government to escalate attacks in Darfur and increase support for rebels in Chad.

APA

Abdalla, M. (2009). The ICC Decision on the Indictment of Sudan`s President and Possible Outcomes. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-icc-decision-on-the-indictment-of-sudans-president-and-possible-outcomes

Chicago

Abdalla, Muna. The ICC Decision on the Indictment of Sudan`s President and Possible Outcomes. Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-icc-decision-on-the-indictment-of-sudans-president-and-possible-outcomes.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Abdalla |first1=Muna |title=The ICC Decision on the Indictment of Sudan`s President and Possible Outcomes |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=26 February 2009 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-icc-decision-on-the-indictment-of-sudans-president-and-possible-outcomes |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{abdalla2009icc, author = {Abdalla, Muna}, title = {{The ICC Decision on the Indictment of Sudan`s President and Possible Outcomes}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = feb, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-icc-decision-on-the-indictment-of-sudans-president-and-possible-outcomes}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }