Lockdown lessons: Violence and policing in a pandemic

This report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Western Cape Government examines the impact of South Africa's 2020 COVID-19 lockdown on violence and policing, specifically focusing on 11 police areas in Cape Town. Using murder data, interviews, and a survey of over 5,000 residents, the study identifies a strong correlation between alcohol bans and the reduction of sharp-object murders and fatal violence against women, while finding that firearm-related murders remained largely unaffected by lockdown restrictions.

• Murder rates in the 11 focus areas dropped significantly during the initial strict lockdown phases but rose as regulations relaxed. Murder fell by 47% in the first four weeks (Level 5) and 38% in the second four weeks (Level 4) compared to 2019. However, by Level 1, murder had increased by 59% by 17 October 2020.
• There is a clear correlation between the ban on alcohol and a decrease in murders committed with sharp objects. These murders more than halved during the periods when alcohol was banned (Levels 5, 4, and 3b) but doubled when alcohol was reintroduced (Levels 3a, 2, and 1).
• Lockdown measures and the alcohol ban did not significantly reduce firearm-related murders. While there were marginal dips during Levels 5 and 4, firearm-related violence persisted regardless of movement restrictions or alcohol availability.
• Fatal violence against women saw a more pronounced reduction during lockdown than violence against men, particularly when alcohol was banned. The proportion of female murder victims dropped from roughly 9% pre-lockdown to 5% under Level 5 and 4% under Level 4, before doubling back to 9% when alcohol was unbanned under Level 3a.
• Public perception of policing and safety remained relatively stable despite the decline in murder. Approximately 50% of survey respondents felt 'very safe' during lockdown, a figure similar to the preceding year. While 70% approved of lockdown enforcement and 81% wanted such policing to continue, trust in police remained steady at around 35%.
• The report recommends a dual approach to reducing murder in the Western Cape: better regulation of alcohol to curb impulsive and domestic violence, and the full regulation of firearms, specifically targeting the removal of illegal weapons and the elimination of corrupt officials who supply them.

APA

Faull, A., Kelly, J., & Dissel, A. (2021). Lockdown lessons: Violence and policing in a pandemic. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar44.pdf

Chicago

Faull, Andrew, Jane Kelly, and Amanda Dissel. Lockdown lessons: Violence and policing in a pandemic. Institute for Security Studies, 2021. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar44.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Faull |first1=Andrew |last2=Kelly |first2=Jane |last3=Dissel |first3=Amanda |title=Lockdown lessons: Violence and policing in a pandemic |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2021 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar44.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{faull2021lockdown, author = {Faull, Andrew and Kelly, Jane and Dissel, Amanda}, title = {{Lockdown lessons: Violence and policing in a pandemic}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2021}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar44.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }