How to map violence without police data

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines how to map murder and violence in South Africa when official police data is unavailable or outdated. Using the Western Cape as a case study, it argues that because violence is clustered in specific areas, data-driven mapping is essential for effective prevention. The author proposes several alternative data sources, including health facility trauma records, community police forums, smartphone applications, and municipal emergency systems, to identify violence hotspots and guide interventions.

• Violence in South Africa is not distributed evenly but is concentrated in specific clusters. For example, in 2016/17, 50% of all murders were recorded at just 13% (148) of South African Police Service (SAPS) stations, and in 2017/18, 20% (4,124) of murders occurred at 30 stations.
• The South African Police Service (SAPS) holds the primary records for reported crime, but this data is not regularly shared with the public. This lack of transparency inhibits evidence-based policing and violence prevention, despite the White Paper on Policing stating that communities are entitled to comprehensive and timely information from local police.
• Mapping murder is a highly effective proxy for understanding general violence because murder is the most reliably reported crime. Many other violent crimes go unreported; for instance, in 2017, only 29% of robberies were reported to the police.
• In the Western Cape, interpersonal conflict is likely the most common cause of murder. SAPS analysis for 2017/18 found that 23% of murders resulted from arguments, domestic violence, and retaliation or revenge, while gang activity accounted for 22%. Firearms were the most common instrument used, appearing in 42% of murders and 77% of attempted murders.
• Effective violence prevention requires 'focused deterrence,' which concentrates resources in the areas where violence is greatest. This approach requires the sharing of data across multiple stakeholders to target specific people, behaviors, and locations proactively.
• Several alternative methods can be used to map violence without SAPS data: collecting anonymized trauma data from health facilities (the Cardiff Model), consulting Community Police Forums (CPFs) and neighbourhood watches, using smartphone apps like Locstat for community reporting, and utilizing forensic pathology data from mortuary van trackers.
• The City of Cape Town provides valuable municipal data through Programme EPIC and ShotSpotter. EPIC synthesizes emergency calls and ambulance dispatch data, while ShotSpotter uses acoustic sensors to pinpoint the location of gunshots in areas like Manenberg and Hanover Park, capturing lethal violence that may not appear in police records.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). How to map violence without police data. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar22.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. How to map violence without police data. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar22.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=How to map violence without police data |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar22.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndhow, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{How to map violence without police data}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar22.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }