Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes provincial murder trends in South Africa from 2011/12 to 2022/23. It argues that national murder statistics are misleading because trends vary significantly by province, with a small number of populous provinces driving the overall increase in the national murder rate.

• The South African per-capita murder rate has risen steadily since 2011/12, reaching 45 per 100,000 in 2022/23, which is the highest rate in 20 years.
• Four provinces—Eastern Cape, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and Western Cape—are the primary drivers of the national trend. Together, they accounted for 68% of the national population in 2022 and 83% of all murders in 2022/23.
• The Eastern Cape had the highest per-capita murder rate in 2022/23 at 71 per 100,000. KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape followed with rates of 56 per 100,000, and Gauteng had a rate of 42 per 100,000.
• While most provinces saw increases, the Western Cape's per-capita murder rate decreased slightly between 2017/18 and 2022/23. Conversely, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape saw the most dramatic increases since 2011/12.
• Major surges in murders occurred in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in 2021/22. Analysis indicates that the July 2021 unrest was not a major contributor to these increases; for example, unrest-linked deaths likely accounted for no more than 12% of the additional murders in KwaZulu-Natal that year.
• Experts suggest that the growth of organised crime is a major factor in rising murder rates, citing the erosion of policing skills, the release of state guns to criminals, and corruption in the gun licensing system.
• Structural factors like poverty and unemployment do not fully explain provincial differences. For instance, the North West province has the highest expanded unemployment rate (53.3% in Q3 2022/23) but one of the lowest murder rates.

APA

Bruce, D. (2023). Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-183.pdf

Chicago

Bruce, David. Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-183.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bruce |first1=David |title=Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2023 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-183.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bruce2023murder, author = {Bruce, David}, title = {{Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-183.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }