At the heart of discontent

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) examines the challenges of measuring and understanding public violence in South Africa. It critiques existing data sources, such as the South African Police Service (SAPS) IRIS system, and presents preliminary findings from the ISS's own Public Violence Monitoring project (2013-2015). The paper explores the drivers of collective violence, including socio-economic inequality and government unresponsiveness, and analyzes the roles of local government, community leadership, and the police in escalating or mitigating public disorder.

• The South African Police Service (SAPS) data on public order incidents is considered unreliable by researchers because it is not subject to independent auditing and appears to reflect the frequency of police activity rather than the actual number of crowd events.
• There is a significant discrepancy between SAPS data and ISS findings regarding the violence of public gatherings; while SAPS categorized 15.5% of crowd events as 'unrest-related' in 2015, the ISS database found that 53% of incidents were termed 'violent' in media reports.
• The ISS Public Violence Monitoring project observed a significant increase in the percentage of events that turned violent, rising from 44% in 2013 to 63% in 2015.
• Public violence is driven by a combination of societal risk factors—such as poverty, unemployment, and inequality—and specific triggers, including government unresponsiveness and a 'top-down approach' to policy and service delivery.
• The 2014 national elections were associated with 146 incidents of public violence, 71% of which were violent, including the burning of Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) tents and polling stations in Richards Bay, Sterkspruit, and Bekkersdal.
• Geographic analysis shows that two-thirds of recorded public violence events (1,823) occur in metro areas, while non-metro areas are more likely to experience protests regarding water, roads, jobs, and municipal demarcation.
• Police responses can act as a trigger for further violence, particularly when the SAPS or metro police use excessive force, such as rubber bullets and teargas, to quell crowds, which erodes trust in the state.

APA

Lancaster, L. (2016). At the heart of discontent. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper292.pdf

Chicago

Lancaster, Lizette. At the heart of discontent. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper292.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lancaster |first1=Lizette |title=At the heart of discontent |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=May 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper292.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lancaster2016heart, author = {Lancaster, Lizette}, title = {{At the heart of discontent}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = may, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper292.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }