Cars and robbers

This research paper by Antony Altbeker for the Institute for Security Studies examines the divergent trends of property crime in South Africa between the late 1990s and 2004. It argues that the decline in car theft and hijacking was partially mirrored by an increase in aggravated robberies, suggesting a displacement effect where criminals shifted their activities as car theft became riskier and less profitable.

• Between 1996/97 and 2004/05, property crime trends in South Africa moved in distinct directions: car theft and car hijacking declined continuously since 1998, while recorded robbery (both aggravated and common) rose quickly in almost every year except 2001/02, 2003/04, and 2004/05.
• The author rejects the argument that the rise in recorded robberies was merely a reporting phenomenon. Evidence includes the fact that reporting rates for robbery actually fell from 41% in 1998 to 29% in 2003 according to national victimisation surveys, and the geographic concentration of the increase does not align with areas of improved police service delivery.
• The decline in car theft and hijacking is attributed to a combination of improved detective performance, more efficient courts, mandatory minimum sentences, reengineered vehicle licensing systems, and the penetration of vehicle tracking technology since 1999.
• Vehicle tracking technology reduces car crime by increasing the risk of arrest for professional thieves and chop-shop operators, and by reducing the price chop-shop owners are willing to pay for stolen cars.
• Statistical analysis of police station data between 1998/99 and 2003/04 indicates a significant negative relationship between the decline in car theft and the rise in aggravated robberies. The data suggests that for every three car thefts 'prevented', nearly two aggravated robberies occurred.
• When focusing specifically on the 581 stations where car theft numbers fell, the correlation is stronger: every car theft that did not occur in 2003/04 relative to 1998/99 resulted in 0.8 additional aggravated robberies.
• The rise in robberies is also linked to the increased prevalence of cell phones after 1996/97, which increased the expected reward for mugging victims.
• The displacement effect from car theft to robbery is not one-to-one, which the author explains through four factors: the rise in common robberies (not just aggravated), the under-reporting of robbery compared to car theft, the possibility that some criminals ceased all criminal activity, and the higher value of cell phones allowing robbers to commit fewer crimes to reach income goals.
• The author argues that the decline in car theft explains approximately 14.4% of the variation in robbery increases across all stations, and 30.3% of the variation in stations where car theft actually fell.
• Based on the evidence of displacement, the author concludes that government subsidies for vehicle tracking technology (such as Lojack in the US) would be inappropriate for South Africa, as the 'positive externality' of reducing car theft is offset by the 'negative externality' of increasing other crimes.

APA

Altbeker, A. (2006). Cars and robbers. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper124.pdf

Chicago

Altbeker, Antony. Cars and robbers. Institute for Security Studies, 2006. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper124.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Altbeker |first1=Antony |title=Cars and robbers |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2006 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper124.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{altbeker2006cars, author = {Altbeker, Antony}, title = {{Cars and robbers}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2006}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/paper124.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }