Towards a Continental Early Warning System for Africa

This research paper examines the development and operationalization of the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) within the African Union (AU). It distinguishes early warning from traditional state intelligence, emphasizing a focus on human security and open-source data. The document reviews the transition from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) to the AU, the legal framework of the Peace and Security Council (PSC), and the varying stages of early warning system implementation across regional economic communities in West, Central, Southern, and East Africa.

• Early warning systems differ fundamentally from traditional intelligence systems in their goals and methods. While intelligence relies on secrecy and serves national or state interests, early warning systems use open-source material and aim to serve human security.
• The Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) is designed as one of the five pillars of the AU's Peace and Security Council (PSC). Its primary role is to provide the Chairperson of the Commission with timely information to advise the Council on potential conflicts and threats to peace and security.
• The author argues that conflict prevention, democracy, and good governance are inextricably linked. Poor governance is identified as a key determinant of insecurity, citing examples where bad governance intensified starvation in Ethiopia and Sudan, and maintained poverty in Equatorial Guinea despite GDP growth.
• The ECOWAS Peace and Security Observation System is described as the most comprehensive and logically integrated regional system on the continent. It utilizes an Observation and Monitoring Centre (OMC) and four zonal monitoring areas to gather daily information.
• The Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) in the Horn of Africa is noted as the most sophisticated regional system, specifically utilizing a data-driven methodology to monitor pastoral conflicts. However, it has taken an incremental approach and is currently restricted to the Karamoja and Somali clusters.
• The Early Warning Observation and Monitoring System for Central Africa (MARAC), under ECCAS, is designed as an open-source system but is reported as not yet operational due to staffing, financial, and logistic problems.
• The SADC early warning system differs from the AU and ECOWAS models by relying on linkages with national intelligence agencies rather than an open-source approach. This reflects a narrower interpretation of security that equates it with state security rather than human security.
• The AU's ability to implement the CEWS is hindered by several systemic challenges, including the barrier of national sovereignty, lack of technological infrastructure, limited financial and human resources, and a lack of political will among Member States.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2005). Towards a Continental Early Warning System for Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER102.PDF

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Towards a Continental Early Warning System for Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2005. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER102.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Towards a Continental Early Warning System for Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=April 2005 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER102.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2005towards, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Towards a Continental Early Warning System for Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2005}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PAPER102.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }