FACT SHEET: What the crime stats tell us, and what they don’t

This fact sheet from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes crime trends and policing effectiveness in South Africa, arguing that increasing police numbers and budgets alone does not reduce crime, particularly for 'social fabric' crimes.

• National crime levels peaked in 2002/03, followed by a 24% reduction over four years, though the reasons for these trends remain speculative. In the two years preceding the report, this downward trend reversed and crime began to rise again.
• Traditional visible policing, such as patrols and roadblocks, is ineffective against 'social fabric' or 'contact' crimes—including murder, assault, sexual offences, and domestic violence—because these typically occur between acquaintances in private spaces.
• The absolute number of murders decreased by 7.2%, marking the third largest year-on-year decline since 1995. While the cause is unclear, it is attributed to social factors and a 10% decrease in street robberies.
• Trends for 'Trio crimes' show mixed results: vehicle hijackings decreased by 6.8%, and residential robberies stabilized with a 1.9% increase in 2009/10. However, business robberies increased by 295.3% between an unspecified start date and 2009/10, though the rate of increase slowed to 4.4% in the most recent year.
• Between an unspecified date and 2009/10, the South African Police Service (SAPS) increased personnel by 44.4% (61,000 additional staff) and increased its budget by almost 132%, from R22.7 billion in 2004 to R52.6 billion in 2010. Despite this, the police remain the least trusted government agency due to poor service delivery, corruption, and weak internal accountability.

APA

Gould, C., Burger, J., & Newham, G. (n.d.). FACT SHEET: What the crime stats tell us, and what they don’t. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/FactSheet.pdf

Chicago

Gould, Chandré, Johan Burger, and Gareth Newham. FACT SHEET: What the crime stats tell us, and what they don’t. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/FactSheet.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gould |first1=Chandré |last2=Burger |first2=Johan |last3=Newham |first3=Gareth |title=FACT SHEET: What the crime stats tell us, and what they don’t |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/FactSheet.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gouldndfact, author = {Gould, Chandré and Burger, Johan and Newham, Gareth}, title = {{FACT SHEET: What the crime stats tell us, and what they don’t}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/FactSheet.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }