Crime Quarterly No. 5

This report from the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of HIV/AIDS and policing in South Africa, the perceptions of personal security in Soweto townships, the 'sieve effect' of the criminal justice system's conviction rates, and crime trends within the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality.

• The HIV/AIDS epidemic is expected to increase the proportion of adolescents and young adults in South Africa, potentially leading to higher levels of "delinquent behaviour, predatory crime and inter-group conflict."
• HIV/AIDS is projected to undermine the South African Police Service (SAPS) by reducing the availability of experienced personnel as officers fall ill and die, which could "significantly reduce the levels of service the SAPS is able to provide."
• A 1998/99 impact study estimated that between 8% and 10% of functional police officers might be infected with HIV, with projections suggesting prevalence among 30 to 34 year-olds could increase to approximately 45% by 2015.
• In Soweto, many residents perceive the apartheid era as safer than the post-apartheid period, attributing this to more effective policing and higher employment, despite evidence that townships were plagued by violent crime during the 1940s.
• A survey in Meadowlands, Soweto, found that 47% of respondents were victims of crime in the preceding twelve months, with burglary (20%), robbery (18%), and assault (9%) being the most prevalent.
• Contrary to general public sentiment, residents of Meadowlands believe that local South Africans, particularly the unemployed and youth, are responsible for crime rather than foreigners; only 8% of interviewees blamed foreigners.
• The South African criminal justice system exhibits a 'sieve effect' where many reported crimes do not result in convictions. A Law Commission study found only 6% of tracked serious violent crimes resulted in a conviction within the study period.
• Comparing South African detection rates to those in England and Wales suggests that SAPS performs similarly in some areas; for example, in 2000, 23% of serious cases recorded by SAPS were referred to court, matching the 23% detection rate in England and Wales for 2001/2.
• In the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (NMMM), 23% of survey respondents were victims of crime in 2002, with home burglary identified as the most common crime.
• Police statistics for the NMMM show that robbery has steadily increased since 1997, with other robberies increasing by 37% and aggravated robbery increasing by 33% between 1996 and 2000.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). Crime Quarterly No. 5. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CQ5Full.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. Crime Quarterly No. 5. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CQ5Full.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Crime Quarterly No. 5 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CQ5Full.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndcrime, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Crime Quarterly No. 5}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CQ5Full.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }