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This report chapter argues for the integration of light weapons monitoring into early warning systems to prevent conflict. It examines the limitations of existing international arms registers, proposes a five-element process for early warning, and highlights regional cooperation in Southern Africa as a model for identifying and destroying destabilising weapons accumulations.

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  • Existing international mechanisms, specifically the UN Register of Conventional Arms and the Wassenaar Arrangement, are insufficient for early warning because they do not include light weapons as a category and rely heavily on government-provided information, which may be withheld for political or security reasons.
  • In Southern Africa, weapons have spread across borders through various channels, including smuggling and bartering for food during wartime. For example, weapons from Angola have affected Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Swaziland, while those from Mozambique have impacted South Africa.

Cite the original document

APA
Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). Society Under Siege II. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CHAP7S.PDF
Chicago
Institute for Security Studies. Society Under Siege II. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CHAP7S.PDF.
Wikipedia
{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Society Under Siege II |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CHAP7S.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
BibTeX
@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndsociety, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Society Under Siege II}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CHAP7S.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }

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