Resolving the Chadian Political Epilepsy: An Assessment of Intervention Efforts

This situation report by the Institute for Security Studies assesses the political crisis in Chad, analyzing the failure of previous intervention efforts and the interests of domestic and international actors. It argues that while the international community often views the conflict as a spillover from the Darfur crisis, the root causes are internal governance failures and power struggles over state resources, particularly oil. The report evaluates several peace agreements and UN/EU missions, concluding that a lack of political will and coordinated implementation has hindered a sustainable resolution.

• The international community has largely treated the Chadian conflict as a regional spillover from the Darfur crisis and conflicts in the Central African Republic, a policy approach that the report argues is based on faulty premises because the conflict's source lies in Chad's internal politics.
• Control of the Chadian state is primarily a means of wealth accumulation, specifically regarding oil, which accounts for 90% of the country's total exports. The Doba reserves are estimated at one billion proven barrels, though these are projected to decrease substantially by 2025.
• President Déby uses oil rents to maintain power through the purchase of arms and the sustainment of patronage. By 2006, Chad had spent approximately 70% of the total accumulated oil revenues earned between 2000 and 2006, a rate higher than most regional oil producers except Sudan.
• The Union des Forces de la Résistance (UFR), an alliance of seven rebel groups established on 18 January 2009 and led by Timan Erdimi, has formed a shadow cabinet and military command to signal to the international community that it is capable of governing.
• France's involvement in Chad is driven by geostrategic interests, viewing the country as a "French aircraft carrier of the desert." France maintains three military bases: Camp Adji Kossei in N’Djaména, Camp Croci at Abéché, and a base at Faya-Largeau.
• The United States maintains cordial relations with the Déby government based on interests in energy security—with ExxonMobil and Chevron operating in the Doba oilfields—and the containment of Islamic fundamentalism through the Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP).
• The political accord of 13 August 2007, signed by 95 political parties, aimed to reinforce the democratic process through electoral census and an independent electoral commission. However, implementation has been piecemeal, and the regime has used its majority in the national assembly to manipulate the resulting laws in its own favor.
• The Dakar Agreement of March 2008 sought to normalize relations between Chad and Sudan, including the creation of a contact group and a joint border peace and security force. Implementation has been slow due to a lack of political will and distrust, with the proposed force described by a contact group member as a "paper tiger."
• Minurcat II, authorized by UN Security Council resolution 1861, took operational control on 14 March 2009 with 2,085 troops. It is criticized as being a French policy instrument designed to protect President Déby.
• The report identifies several possible scenarios for the future, including renewed violence as the rainy season approaches, parliamentary elections that would enhance Déby's legitimacy, or a palace coup driven by ambitious members of his internal clique.

APA

Ayangafac, C. (2009). Resolving the Chadian Political Epilepsy: An Assessment of Intervention Efforts. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CHAD1-06-09.PDF

Chicago

Ayangafac, Chrysantus. Resolving the Chadian Political Epilepsy: An Assessment of Intervention Efforts. Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CHAD1-06-09.PDF.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ayangafac |first1=Chrysantus |title=Resolving the Chadian Political Epilepsy: An Assessment of Intervention Efforts |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 June 2009 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CHAD1-06-09.PDF |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ayangafac2009resolving, author = {Ayangafac, Chrysantus}, title = {{Resolving the Chadian Political Epilepsy: An Assessment of Intervention Efforts}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/CHAD1-06-09.PDF}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }