Can external mediation break Sudand political stalemate?

This research paper examines the political stalemate in Sudan following the October 2021 military coup. It analyzes the challenges facing a trilateral mediation mechanism—comprising the UN, AU, and IGAD—as it attempts to bridge deep divisions between the military junta and fragmented civilian opposition groups to establish a legitimate government and a transition plan.

• Sudan is experiencing a severe economic and humanitarian crisis characterized by record-high inflation, shortages of fuel and bread, and the suspension of development aid from international partners. The country also faces humanitarian emergencies due to flooding and intercommunal conflicts in the Blue Nile, Kassala, and Darfur states.
• A trilateral mediation mechanism consisting of the United Nations (UN), African Union (AU), and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has been working since June to facilitate a negotiated transitional agreement. The primary goals of these negotiations are to define the military's role in the transition, establish a timeframe for elections, and appoint a civilian-led government.
• Civilian opposition groups, including the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and resistance committees, distrust the military's commitment to ceding power. They accuse the military of consolidating political and economic control and forming an alliance with Islamist groups and members of Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP).
• The civilian opposition is fragmented into multiple factions with differing views on engagement. While the FFC Central Council and National Consensus Coalition are open to negotiations, the Forces for Radical Change and resistance committees strongly oppose them. However, some civilian actors, such as the Call of Sudan’s People initiative, support the military.
• The author argues that the trilateral process should facilitate a national constitutional dialogue before elections to ensure the process is inclusive and independent. This should include the formation of a representative legislative council to avoid the shortcomings of the pre-coup transitional period.

APA

Woldemichael, S. (n.d.). Can external mediation break Sudand political stalemate? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/can-external-mediation-break-sudans-political-stalemate

Chicago

Woldemichael, Shewit. Can external mediation break Sudand political stalemate? Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/can-external-mediation-break-sudans-political-stalemate.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Woldemichael |first1=Shewit |title=Can external mediation break Sudand political stalemate? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/can-external-mediation-break-sudans-political-stalemate |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{woldemichaelndcan, author = {Woldemichael, Shewit}, title = {{Can external mediation break Sudand political stalemate?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/can-external-mediation-break-sudans-political-stalemate}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }