Not Yet Time for Celebration in Libya

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies argues that the military victory over Muammar Gaddafi in Libya is only the beginning of a difficult process to achieve political stability. The author identifies immediate security crises, including the proliferation of weapons and the lack of a unified command for security forces, alongside long-term structural challenges such as the need to build state institutions from the ground up and the requirement for national reconciliation.

• The immediate priority for post-Gaddafi Libya is the establishment of law and order, which requires bringing security forces under unified control and making the criminal justice system functional. The current security sector is described as being in disarray, with diverse armed groups lacking a unified command.
• Libya faces a severe crisis regarding the proliferation of weapons, with the country described as being 'awash' with arms, including missiles, taken from army bases. U.S. assistant secretary of state Andrew Shapiro estimated on 14 October that Libya's arsenal contained approximately 20,000 shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles before the civil war began in March.
• The transition to democracy is complicated by the legacy of Muammar Gaddafi's 'Third Universal Theory,' which minimized state bureaucracy and institutionalized government in favor of 'peoples committees.' Because Libya had no constitution, tradition of party politics, or organized civil society, state institutions must now be built from the ground up.
• National cohesion is threatened by historic ethnic, tribal, and regional divisions, as well as new ideological splits between Islamists and secularists. There is a risk that jihadist groups, specifically Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, may exploit the current political and security instability.
• The physical reconstruction of the country is a major challenge, with the National Transitional Council (NTC) estimating costs could reach USD 5 billion. Ahmed Jehani, head of the NTC’s Libyan Stabilisation Team, stated on 26 August 2011 that rebuilding the infrastructure would take at least ten years.

APA

Dersso, S. A. (n.d.). Not Yet Time for Celebration in Libya. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/not-yet-time-for-celebration-in-libya

Chicago

Dersso, Solomon A. Not Yet Time for Celebration in Libya. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/not-yet-time-for-celebration-in-libya.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dersso |first1=Solomon A. |title=Not Yet Time for Celebration in Libya |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/not-yet-time-for-celebration-in-libya |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{derssondnot, author = {Dersso, Solomon A.}, title = {{Not Yet Time for Celebration in Libya}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/not-yet-time-for-celebration-in-libya}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }