Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe

The briefing analyzes the factional divisions within Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party, focusing on ethno-linguistic splits between Zezuru, Manyika, and Karanga groups. It identifies key figures such as Robert Mugabe, Emmerson Mnangagwa, and Sidney Sekeramayi as central to the struggle for presidential succession, noting that the outcome will depend on loyalty, ethnic alignment, and support from security institutions like the Central Intelligence Organisation and the Zimbabwe Defence Force.

• The ruling ZANU-PF party is divided into factions often split along provincial and ethno-linguistic lines, primarily involving the Zezuru, Manyika, and Karanga groups. The dominant Zezuru faction, led by President Robert Mugabe and including figures like Solomon Mujuru and Sydney Sekeramayi, has formed an alliance with the Manyika group, which includes Kumbirai Kangai, Didymus Mutasa, and Simbarashe Makoni.
• The Karanga group is split into two factions: one led by Dr Eddison Zvobgo, who is critical of the Mugabe government, and another aligned with Mugabe, led by Vice President Simon Muzenda and including Stanislaus Mudenge and Emmerson Mnangagwa.
• Emmerson Mnangagwa is viewed as a strong contender for presidential succession due to his history as Security Minister and his relationship with President Mugabe, though his non-Zezuru ethnicity may hinder his chances as it would shift power toward the Muzenda-Karanga group.
• The Zezuru camp, led by Solomon Mujuru, prefers Sydney Sekeramayi as a successor to counterbalance the Muzenda-Karanga group. This faction is believed to have significant influence due to Mujuru's connections with the Zimbabwe Defence Force and the Central Intelligence Organisation.
• The struggle for succession within ZANU-PF is expected to be volatile, with a history of the party using violence to resolve political issues. Extreme factionalism could potentially lead to the party's implosion, creating an opportunity for the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to take power.

APA

Maroleng, C. (2002). Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/01-mar-2002-future-power-plays-in-zimbabwe-chris-maroleng

Chicago

Maroleng, Chris. Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies, 2002. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/01-mar-2002-future-power-plays-in-zimbabwe-chris-maroleng.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maroleng |first1=Chris |title=Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 March 2002 |url=https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/01-mar-2002-future-power-plays-in-zimbabwe-chris-maroleng |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maroleng2002future, author = {Maroleng, Chris}, title = {{Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2002}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/01-mar-2002-future-power-plays-in-zimbabwe-chris-maroleng}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }