Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe

This briefing analyzes the internal power dynamics and succession struggles within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) ahead of the March 2002 presidential elections in Zimbabwe. It details the ethno-linguistic factions competing for influence and the potential candidates to succeed President Robert Mugabe.

• Political analysts generally believe that free and fair presidential elections in Zimbabwe are impossible at the current stage, predicting a narrow victory for incumbent President Robert Mugabe over the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) candidate Morgan Tsvangirai. This outlook is influenced by reports of human rights violations and political violence by ZANU-PF supporters and the implementation of draconian government laws.
• ZANU-PF is divided into factions often split along provincial and ethno-linguistic lines. The dominant Zezuru group, led by President Mugabe and including figures like retired Lieutenant–General Tapfumanei Solomon Mujuru and Dr Sydney Sekeramayi, has formed an alliance with the Manyika Chishona group, which includes Kumbirai Kangai, Didymus Mutasa, and Dr Simbarashe Makoni.
• The Karanga group is split into two factions: one led by Dr Eddison Zvobgo, who is critical of the Mugabe government and supported by retired Air Marshal Josiah Tungamirai; and another aligned with Mugabe, led by Vice President Simon Muzenda and Dr Stanislaus Mudenge. Emmerson Mnangagwa is a key member of the Muzenda-Karanga group and a potential presidential successor due to his history as Security Minister.
• President Mugabe's ideal exit strategy requires a successor who is loyal, capable of providing protection from future prosecution or revenge, and preferably from the Zezuru ethnic group. While Emmerson Mnangagwa is a close confidant, his non-Zezuru status could hinder his chances, as his presidency would shift power toward the Muzenda-Karanga group. Conversely, the Mujuru-led Zezuru camp prefers Sidney Sekeramayi to maintain Zezuru control of the presidency.
• The struggle for succession within ZANU-PF is likely to involve political violence, given the party's history of using violence to resolve political issues. Extreme factionalism could potentially lead to the party's implosion, which might allow the MDC to take power.

APA

Maroleng, C. (2002). Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/01-mar-2002-future-power-plays-in-zimbabwe-chris-maroleng

Chicago

Maroleng, Chris. Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe. Institute for Security Studies, 2002. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/01-mar-2002-future-power-plays-in-zimbabwe-chris-maroleng.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maroleng |first1=Chris |title=Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 March 2002 |url=https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/01-mar-2002-future-power-plays-in-zimbabwe-chris-maroleng |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maroleng2002future, author = {Maroleng, Chris}, title = {{Future Power Plays in Zimbabwe}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2002}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/01-mar-2002-future-power-plays-in-zimbabwe-chris-maroleng}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }