Positive Trends. The 2004/05 Crime Statistics

The research paper analyzes South African Police Service (SAPS) crime statistics for the period April 2004 to March 2005. The author argues that while police statistics are subject to under-reporting and under-recording, the overall trend shows a broad decline in serious crime, particularly in well-recorded categories like murder and car theft, alongside an exponential increase in arrests.

• Aggregate levels of the eight most concerning crimes—murder, attempted murder, serious assault, rape, aggravated robbery, common robbery, car theft, and housebreaking—fell to 980,000 in 2004/05, down from a peak of nearly 1.1 million in 2002/03.
• Since 2002/03, violent crime levels have decreased by 8% and property crime levels have decreased by 11%. Specifically, murder has fallen consistently for ten years, and attempted murder has dropped steeply over the last two years.
• Certain crimes are considered more reliable indicators of actual crime levels because they are well-reported and well-recorded. Murders peaked in 1995/96 at 26,877 and fell by 30% to 18,793 in 2004/05 (a per capita drop of over 40%). Car theft peaked in 1998/99 at 107,500 and fell by 22% to under 83,900, while car hijackings fell by 21% from a peak of nearly 15,800 in 1998/99.
• While most serious crimes declined, some categories saw increases in 2004/05: rape (up 5% to 55,114), indecent assault (up 9% to 10,123), common assault (up 5% to 267,857), drug offences (up 34% to 84,001), and drunken driving (up 20% to 29,927). Increases in drug and driving offences are attributed to increased police activity.
• The SAPS arrested nearly 2.5 million people in the 12 months to April 2005, which is 40% higher than the number of arrests four years prior. This represents more than one in 20 people in South Africa and nearly one in ten adults over 19.
• The author argues that the SAPS uses a methodologically unsound formula to calculate the rate at which cases are referred to court. When recalculated using standard methods, the referral rate for murder is approximately 60%.

APA

Altbeker, A. (2005). Positive Trends. The 2004/05 Crime Statistics. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/01-dec-2005-sacq-no-14/01-dec-2005-positive-trends.-the-200405-crime-statistics-antony-altbeker

Chicago

Altbeker, Antony. Positive Trends. The 2004/05 Crime Statistics. Institute for Security Studies, 2005. https://issafrica.org/01-dec-2005-sacq-no-14/01-dec-2005-positive-trends.-the-200405-crime-statistics-antony-altbeker.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Altbeker |first1=Antony |title=Positive Trends. The 2004/05 Crime Statistics |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 December 2005 |url=https://issafrica.org/01-dec-2005-sacq-no-14/01-dec-2005-positive-trends.-the-200405-crime-statistics-antony-altbeker |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{altbeker2005positive, author = {Altbeker, Antony}, title = {{Positive Trends. The 2004/05 Crime Statistics}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2005}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.org/01-dec-2005-sacq-no-14/01-dec-2005-positive-trends.-the-200405-crime-statistics-antony-altbeker}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }