Possible Scenarios for Eastern DRC in 2009

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as of January 2009. It identifies key drivers of instability in North Kivu and outlines three potential scenarios for the region: the maintenance of the status quo, a return to war, or the establishment of peace through negotiations.

• The conflict in North Kivu, Eastern DRC, is driven by several factors, including the Congolese government's inability to govern the region, the failure to complete the Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) process, and the lack of capacity of the Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) to stabilize the area. Other drivers include the perceived lack of will or capacity of the United Nations Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC) to protect civilians, the incomplete repatriation of the Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), the military projection of the CNDP, Rwandan support for the CNDP, and ongoing resource conflicts.
• The 'War Scenario' involves the CNDP, led by Laurent Nkunda, returning to conflict if mediation fails or if the FARDC launches attacks. In this scenario, the CNDP could expand its influence into Ituri and South Kivu, potentially overrunning Goma, Bukavu, and Bunia. The FARDC is described as too weak to stop such an offensive, and MONUC's effectiveness would depend on the will of troop-contributing countries and their interpretation of rules of engagement; only a robust external force, such as an EU Battle group, could likely stop the campaign.
• The 'Peace' scenario requires the success of peace talks and the deployment of a robust military force. This involves implementing the Goma and Nairobi agreements and the Amani process. A proposed MONUC disengagement plan consists of three phases: an immediate ceasefire and separation of forces, disarmament and demobilization of combatants, and integration into the FARDC or return to civilian life. This would be followed by a stability programme to extend state authority and protect civilians.
• For a negotiated peace to become reality, several conditions must be met: the deployment of an additional 2,785 soldiers and two police units to North Kivu, the re-establishment of a tripartite +1 ceasefire monitoring mechanism (including DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi), and direct talks between Presidents Kagame and Kabila. Additionally, Rwanda must end support for the CNDP and close its border, while the DRC government must stop supporting the FDLR, reform its national DDR law, and reform its security forces.

APA

Boshoff, H. (2009). Possible Scenarios for Eastern DRC in 2009. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/07-jan-2009-iss-today-possible-scenarios-for-eastern-drc-in-2009

Chicago

Boshoff, Henri. Possible Scenarios for Eastern DRC in 2009. Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/07-jan-2009-iss-today-possible-scenarios-for-eastern-drc-in-2009.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Boshoff |first1=Henri |title=Possible Scenarios for Eastern DRC in 2009 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=7 January 2009 |url=https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/07-jan-2009-iss-today-possible-scenarios-for-eastern-drc-in-2009 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{boshoff2009possible, author = {Boshoff, Henri}, title = {{Possible Scenarios for Eastern DRC in 2009}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = jan, url = {https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/07-jan-2009-iss-today-possible-scenarios-for-eastern-drc-in-2009}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }