Speculations on Security in South Sudan`s Post-Referendum

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines the security and stability challenges facing South Sudan following the 2011 referendum for self-determination, highlighting risks from ethnic rivalry, economic dependency on Khartoum, and the need for security sector reform.

• Independent voter surveys indicated that over 70% of southern Sudanese voters supported secession in the 2011 referendum for self-determination. While governance structures including the judiciary, legislature, and security apparatus have been established, the primary concern remains the state's ability to provide security for its citizens and ensure state security.
• Economic inter-dependencies and geopolitical tensions between Juba and Khartoum are significant potential sources of conflict. The Government of South Sudan (GOSS) is currently entirely dependent on Khartoum for financial replenishment due to unequal dual governance arrangements. Additionally, as a landlocked region, an independent South Sudan would need to negotiate port access through either Port Sudan or Mombasa.
• Internal security threats are primarily driven by violent ethnic rivalries over resources, exacerbated by the availability of arms and the potential for politicians to exploit these rifts for personal gain. Stability depends on creating a national identity that moves beyond majority-minority rhetoric and implementing an inclusive demobilisation, disarmament and rehabilitation (DDR) process.
• The security sector requires significant transformation to provide justice and security. Current issues include allegations of human rights abuses by police and military, a lack of human rights training for ex-military personnel performing policing duties, and a judiciary with limited capacity due to a shortage of legal personnel or training limited to the Sharia law system used in the north.
• External threats include transnational criminal activities such as human trafficking, money laundering, drug trafficking, and international terrorist groups, all of whom may exploit weaknesses in the state's security architecture. Regional tensions also exist regarding water access in the Nile Basin and a potential border dispute with Kenya over the Elemi Triangle.

APA

Gama, S. A. H. (n.d.). Speculations on Security in South Sudan`s Post-Referendum. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/speculations-on-security-in-south-sudans-post-referendum

Chicago

Gama, Samuel A Hillary. Speculations on Security in South Sudan`s Post-Referendum. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/speculations-on-security-in-south-sudans-post-referendum.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gama |first1=Samuel A Hillary |title=Speculations on Security in South Sudan`s Post-Referendum |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/speculations-on-security-in-south-sudans-post-referendum |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gamandspeculations, author = {Gama, Samuel A Hillary}, title = {{Speculations on Security in South Sudan`s Post-Referendum}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/speculations-on-security-in-south-sudans-post-referendum}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }