The realistic expectations of the new African Union Commission Chairperson and Libya: the resignation of Libyan Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the limitations of the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson's role upon the appointment of Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and examines the political instability in Libya following the dismissal of Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur.

• The Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) faces significant structural limitations that constrain their ability to implement decisions and manage the organization. These include a lack of enforcement power to realize Peace and Security Council (PSC) declarations, a lack of discretionary power to respond to unanticipated crises, and limited control over the appointment and oversight of Commissioners, who are often influenced by member states.
• Due to the statist nature of the AU and the controversial nature of her election, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma's effectiveness will depend on achieving consensus with member states. A key priority is political reconciliation, including the potential need to represent Francophone countries in her cabinet to balance the fact that both the Chairperson and Deputy Chairperson are from Anglophone countries.
• On 7 October 2012, Libya's General National Congress passed a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur, dismissing him and rejecting his proposed emergency cabinet of 10 ministers. Shagur's failure was attributed to his perceived negative association with the former National Transitional Council, his perceived closeness to Gulf States, being 'out of touch' with Libya due to time spent abroad, and a lack of a personal power base.
• Libya faces a precarious security situation characterized by a power vacuum and the presence of approximately 700 self-governed militias. There is a risk of anarchy or a coalition where militias manage the security of different territories, as these groups often prefer dealing with local leaders over the central government in Tripoli or Benghazi.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2012). The realistic expectations of the new African Union Commission Chairperson and Libya: the resignation of Libyan Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur. https://issafrica.org/research/publication-archives/cpra-daily-briefing/the-realistic-expectations-of-the-new-african-union-commission-chairperson-and-libya-the-resignation-of-libyan-prime-minister-mustafa-abu-shagur

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. The realistic expectations of the new African Union Commission Chairperson and Libya: the resignation of Libyan Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur. 2012. https://issafrica.org/research/publication-archives/cpra-daily-briefing/the-realistic-expectations-of-the-new-african-union-commission-chairperson-and-libya-the-resignation-of-libyan-prime-minister-mustafa-abu-shagur.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=The realistic expectations of the new African Union Commission Chairperson and Libya: the resignation of Libyan Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur |date=October 2012 |url=https://issafrica.org/research/publication-archives/cpra-daily-briefing/the-realistic-expectations-of-the-new-african-union-commission-chairperson-and-libya-the-resignation-of-libyan-prime-minister-mustafa-abu-shagur |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2012realistic, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{The realistic expectations of the new African Union Commission Chairperson and Libya: the resignation of Libyan Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagur}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.org/research/publication-archives/cpra-daily-briefing/the-realistic-expectations-of-the-new-african-union-commission-chairperson-and-libya-the-resignation-of-libyan-prime-minister-mustafa-abu-shagur}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }