Educating Cape 2040: building blocks of future prosperity

This policy brief outlines potential education development paths for the Western Cape through 2040. It contrasts a 'Base Case' of slow improvement with an 'Educating Cape' scenario driven by expanded Early Childhood Development and supplementary teacher training. The proposed scenario predicts 100% primary survival rates by 2030, a reduction of 10,000 people in extreme poverty by 2040, and substantial GDP growth reaching over R6,5 billion in annual gains by 2040.

• The Western Cape education system faces significant challenges with tens of thousands of learners repeating grades annually, which increases the likelihood of further repetition and dropout before matric and strains the capacity of the Western Cape Education Department.
• To improve learner retention and scores, the brief identifies two specific policy options: expanding the Early Childhood Development initiative and introducing specialised supplementary teacher training courses.
• Under the 'Educating Cape' scenario, the burden of grade repetition would be largely absent from primary schools by 2040 and rapidly declining in secondary schools, leading to higher progression into secondary and higher education.
• Comparing the 'Educating Cape' scenario to the 'Base Case' reveals several quantitative gains by 2040: primary survival rates would reach 100 per cent by 2030 (seven years earlier), upper secondary survival rates would increase from 89 per cent to 93 per cent, and 10,000 fewer residents would live in extreme poverty.
• The 'Educating Cape' interventions are projected to provide significant economic benefits, with annual gains to Base Case GDP rising from nearly R30 million in 2020 to over R6,5 billion in 2040 (2013 rand), and GDP per capita at purchasing power parity increasing by R1 400 (2013 rand).

APA

van der Lingen, D., Nonyati, S., Rafa, M., & Camp, H. (n.d.). Educating Cape 2040: building blocks of future prosperity. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/research/books-and-other-publications/educating-cape-2040-building-blocks-of-future-prosperity

Chicago

van der Lingen, Dale, Sibusiso Nonyati, Mickey Rafa, and Hanna Camp. Educating Cape 2040: building blocks of future prosperity. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/research/books-and-other-publications/educating-cape-2040-building-blocks-of-future-prosperity.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van der Lingen |first1=Dale |last2=Nonyati |first2=Sibusiso |last3=Rafa |first3=Mickey |last4=Camp |first4=Hanna |title=Educating Cape 2040: building blocks of future prosperity |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/research/books-and-other-publications/educating-cape-2040-building-blocks-of-future-prosperity |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanderlingenndeducating, author = {van der Lingen, Dale and Nonyati, Sibusiso and Rafa, Mickey and Camp, Hanna}, title = {{Educating Cape 2040: building blocks of future prosperity}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/research/books-and-other-publications/educating-cape-2040-building-blocks-of-future-prosperity}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }