What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe?

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political crisis in Zimbabwe surrounding the June 27, 2008, presidential run-off election, following the withdrawal of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

• The security situation in Zimbabwe deteriorated rapidly prior to the June 27, 2008, run-off election, characterized by widespread political violence and intimidation. The opposition claims over 80 supporters were killed by Zanu-PF supporters, with thousands displaced. Evidence indicates this violence was carried out by youth militias, war veterans, and state agencies including the police, army, and intelligence.
• The author identifies four potential scenarios for Zimbabwe's future. The most likely short-term outcome is that the election proceeds without Morgan Tsvangirai, resulting in Robert Mugabe being declared the winner and Zanu-PF establishing total control, which would lead to rapid economic regression.
• Alternative scenarios include a Government of National Unity (GNU), military intervention, or transitional arrangements. A GNU would require Mugabe to accept a weakened international and regional position. Military intervention by the African Union or UN is deemed unlikely due to the need for a two-thirds AU majority or host country consent. The preferred option is a transitional arrangement between the MDC and ZANU-PF to reform security forces and the electoral act before a new election.
• The crisis in Zimbabwe is viewed as a significant threat to the stability of Southern Africa, potentially causing mass displacement and setting a dangerous precedent for political futures across the African continent.

APA

Boshoff, H. (2008). What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/what-the-future-holds-for-zimbabwe

Chicago

Boshoff, Henri. What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe? Institute for Security Studies, 2008. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/what-the-future-holds-for-zimbabwe.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Boshoff |first1=Henri |title=What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=27 June 2008 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/what-the-future-holds-for-zimbabwe |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{boshoff2008what, author = {Boshoff, Henri}, title = {{What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2008}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/what-the-future-holds-for-zimbabwe}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }