THE TIDE IS TURNING

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the South African Police Service (SAPS) crime statistics for the 2003/04 financial year. It reports a general decrease in most serious crimes, including murder and residential burglary, while highlighting a concerning increase in aggravated robbery. The authors note a disconnect between improving statistical trends and the high levels of fear felt by the South African public.

• Overall crime rates in South Africa rose steadily until 2001, remained constant thereafter, and decreased during the 2003/04 financial year. However, violent crime remains high, accounting for 33% of all recorded crimes in 2003/04, with approximately 20,000 murders, 53,000 rapes, 107,000 aggravated robberies, and 266,000 serious assaults recorded.
• The murder rate has seen a steady 10-year decline from 67 per 100,000 people in 1994/95 to 43 per 100,000 in 2003/04. The decrease between 2002/03 and 2003/04 was 10%.
• Aggravated robbery is identified as the most troubling national trend, with the rate increasing by 31% between 1994/95 and 2003/04 to reach 288 per 100,000 people. The authors suggest this increase may be linked to the proliferation of cell phone robberies, as sim card replacement requires a police case number.
• Specific high-profile robberies showed significant declines in 2003/04: car and truck hijackings decreased by 6%, cash-in-transit (CIT) heists fell by 49%, and bank robberies dropped by 58%.
• Property crime, which makes up about 56% of all offences, generally decreased between 2002/03 and 2003/04. Residential housebreakings dropped by 8% to 645 per 100,000 people, and car theft continued a steady decline that began in 1998/99.
• Recorded levels of 'victimless' crimes—which depend on proactive police action—increased in 2003/04: drug-related crime rose by 14%, driving under the influence by 10%, and illegal possession of firearms by 4%.
• Provincial data for 2003/04 shows Gauteng had the highest rate of aggravated robbery (649 per 100,000), while Limpopo had the lowest murder rate (13 per 100,000). The Western Cape saw a substantial 25% decrease in its murder rate between 2002/03 and 2003/04.
• Farm attacks and murders during these attacks decreased nationally between 2002/03 and 2003/04 by 14% and 15% respectively, although attacks increased in the Free State, Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal.

APA

du Plessis, A., & Louw, A. (2005). THE TIDE IS TURNING. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/01-jun-2005-sacq-no-12/the-tide-is-turning

Chicago

du Plessis, Anton, and Antoinette Louw. THE TIDE IS TURNING. Institute for Security Studies, 2005. https://issafrica.org/01-jun-2005-sacq-no-12/the-tide-is-turning.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=du Plessis |first1=Anton |last2=Louw |first2=Antoinette |title=THE TIDE IS TURNING |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 June 2005 |url=https://issafrica.org/01-jun-2005-sacq-no-12/the-tide-is-turning |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{duplessis2005tide, author = {du Plessis, Anton and Louw, Antoinette}, title = {{THE TIDE IS TURNING}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2005}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.org/01-jun-2005-sacq-no-12/the-tide-is-turning}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }