Lessons from Rwanda’s threat to withdraw from Cabo Delgado

This research paper analyzes the implications of Rwanda's threat to withdraw its security forces from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province. It argues that the deployment serves Rwanda's political and economic interests while highlighting Mozambique's inability to independently secure its territory and the transactional nature of EU and US energy-driven security strategies.

• Rwanda threatened to withdraw its troops from Cabo Delgado on 14 March 2026 due to a lack of sustainable international funding, coinciding with reports that the European Union would not renew funding beyond May. Since 2022, EU funding via the European Peace Facility has totaled approximately US$46 million, representing just under 17% of Rwanda's total deployment costs.
• The Rwandan deployment, which grew from 1,000 soldiers and police in 2021 to over 4,000 troops, has been critical in securing areas for major LNG projects by TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil. This includes the retaking of Mocímboa da Praia and the protection of sites in Palma. A 2025 Status of Forces Agreement between Rwanda and Mozambique focused on territorial containment and the gradual transfer of security responsibilities.
• Rwanda utilizes its military presence in Cabo Delgado to advance economic interests and political standing. Rwandan-linked firms, including construction company Radar Scape and private security firm Isco Segurança, have entered gas-related projects. Politically, the deployment positions Rwanda as a regional security provider and is used as leverage to pressure the US against tightening sanctions and the EU against withdrawing funding.
• Mozambique remains structurally vulnerable and unable to independently secure its territory, as its own security forces suffer from poor logistics, delayed salaries, and accusations of civilian abuse. The insurgency, which has claimed over 6,500 lives since 2017, is driven by local social, political, and economic exclusion by the Maputo central government.
• The EU and US engagement in Mozambique is characterized as resource-driven and transactional, prioritizing the protection of energy interests over addressing the root causes of instability. The EU faces internal conflict over funding the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) because of Rwanda's alleged involvement with the M23 rebellion in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), yet it fears the security vacuum Rwanda's withdrawal would create for European energy interests.

APA

Verelst, B., & Abdullahi, S. (2026). Lessons from Rwanda’s threat to withdraw from Cabo Delgado. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/lessons-from-rwanda-s-threat-to-withdraw-from-cabo-delgado

Chicago

Verelst, Bram, and Said Abdullahi. Lessons from Rwanda’s threat to withdraw from Cabo Delgado. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/lessons-from-rwanda-s-threat-to-withdraw-from-cabo-delgado.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Verelst |first1=Bram |last2=Abdullahi |first2=Said |title=Lessons from Rwanda’s threat to withdraw from Cabo Delgado |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=1 April 2026 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/lessons-from-rwanda-s-threat-to-withdraw-from-cabo-delgado |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{verelst2026lessons, author = {Verelst, Bram and Abdullahi, Said}, title = {{Lessons from Rwanda’s threat to withdraw from Cabo Delgado}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/lessons-from-rwanda-s-threat-to-withdraw-from-cabo-delgado}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }