What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe?

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political crisis in Zimbabwe surrounding the June 27, 2008, presidential run-off election, following the withdrawal of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. It details the widespread political violence and evaluates four potential scenarios for the country's future, concluding that a Mugabe victory is the most likely short-term outcome despite international condemnation.

• The presidential run-off election on 27 June 2008 was preceded by a "rapidly deteriorating security situation" characterized by widespread political violence. Opposition claims indicate that "over 80 of its supporters have been killed by Zanu-PF supporters" and thousands have been displaced. This violence is attributed to a combination of "state agencies (army, police and intelligence), war veterans, and youth militias."
• The author identifies four possible scenarios for Zimbabwe's future. The most likely short-term outcome is that the election proceeds without Morgan Tsvangirai, leading the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to declare Robert Mugabe the winner, which would result in "total control under a renewed Mugabe presidency" and rapid economic regression.
• Alternative scenarios include a Government of National Unity (GNU), military intervention, and transitional arrangements. A GNU would require Mugabe to accept a weakened international position; military intervention by the AU or UN is deemed unlikely due to the need for a two-thirds AU majority or host country consent. The "preferred scenario" is a transitional arrangement between the MDC and ZANU-PF to reform the electoral act and security forces before new elections.
• The crisis in Zimbabwe is viewed as a "major challenge to regional stability in Southern Africa" due to potential mass displacement of people and the "dangerous precedent" it sets for the political future of the African continent.

APA

Boshoff, H. (2008). What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/15-apr-2008-iss-feature-the-crisis-in-zimbabwe/27-jun-2008-iss-today-what-the-future-holds-for-zimbabwe

Chicago

Boshoff, Henri. What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe? Institute for Security Studies, 2008. https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/15-apr-2008-iss-feature-the-crisis-in-zimbabwe/27-jun-2008-iss-today-what-the-future-holds-for-zimbabwe.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Boshoff |first1=Henri |title=What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=27 June 2008 |url=https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/15-apr-2008-iss-feature-the-crisis-in-zimbabwe/27-jun-2008-iss-today-what-the-future-holds-for-zimbabwe |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{boshoff2008what, author = {Boshoff, Henri}, title = {{What The Future Holds For Zimbabwe?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2008}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.org/topics/corruption-and-governance/15-apr-2008-iss-feature-the-crisis-in-zimbabwe/27-jun-2008-iss-today-what-the-future-holds-for-zimbabwe}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }