Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

The report concludes that the Horn of Africa's development is severely hindered by chronic instability, poor governance, and a reliance on primary exports. It argues that while the current trajectory is grim—with high poverty rates in Somalia and South Sudan and fragility in Ethiopia—an 'Integrated Development Push' involving climate-smart agriculture, economic diversification, and regional integration could lead to inclusive growth by 2040.

• Chronic instability and the pursuit of competing security interests by regional leaders hinder development in the Horn of Africa. Progress is contingent upon significant governance changes in Eritrea and South Sudan, stability and governance improvements in Somalia, a resolution to ethnic mobilisation in Ethiopia, an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a successful transition in Sudan, and improved accountability in Djibouti.
• Economic and poverty outlooks are particularly severe for Somalia and South Sudan, where it is projected that over 40% of the population will remain in extreme poverty by 2040 under current trajectories. Ethiopia, despite 25 years of progress, faces threats to its future if events in Tigray escalate, and over 80% of its population is currently multidimensionally poor.
• Regional stability requires addressing transboundary natural resource disputes, specifically the Nile River, and managing borderland issues including illegal migration, transnational organised crime, and the proliferation of small arms, which are reported to number over two million in the region.
• To achieve long-term growth, the region must transition to climate-resilient agriculture by adopting climate-smart technologies, drought-risk management, and high-yielding drought-resistant seeds. This should be supported by revamped irrigation systems and public-private partnerships, as there is limited potential to increase total cropland.
• Human development is constrained by high fertility rates, particularly in Somalia, which has the second highest fertility rate globally. The report recommends that governments work with religious leaders to promote family planning and female education to accelerate the demographic transition.
• Economic vulnerability is driven by an overreliance on a few primary products, exemplified by South Sudan, where oil constitutes more than 90% of exports. The report calls for rapid economic diversification, structural transformation, and improvements to the business and investment climate to nurture the private sector.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2022). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=11-conclusion

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=11-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=11-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2022development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=11-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }