A Dialogue on a Just and Managed Transition to a Paris-Aligned Low-Carbon Future

The document outlines a dialogue between stakeholders on the necessity of a managed decline of Canada's oil and gas sector to avoid the economic and social disruptions of an unmanaged collapse. It emphasizes that climate leadership for wealthy fossil fuel producers requires ending production expansion and implementing supply-side policies. Key discussions focus on the need for a dedicated transition fund, the reform of fossil fuel subsidies and Alberta's low royalty regimes, and the importance of participatory planning that protects workers and communities. The paper argues that a comprehensive policy portfolio—combining demand-side carbon pricing with supply-side production limits—is essential for Canada to meet its global fair share of emissions reductions.

• Canada's continued expansion of the oil sands could make it the world's second largest contributor of new oil production over the next 20 years, potentially consuming 7% to 14% of the remaining global carbon budget for the century.
• A managed phase-out of fossil fuels is considered less disruptive and more predictable for stakeholders than an unmanaged decline, citing past failures like the collapse of the Eastern cod fisheries as a warning.
• Supply-side climate policies, such as limits on exploration and extraction and the phase-out of subsidies, are viewed as critical complements to demand-side policies to avoid stranded assets and carbon lock-in.
• Current fiscal regimes in Canada, specifically low royalty rates in Alberta and existing fossil fuel subsidies, hinder the transition and fail to generate sufficient revenue to fund a just transition.
• Economic diversification must extend beyond the energy sector, as there will not be a one-to-one replacement of fossil fuel jobs with renewable energy jobs.
• The cleanup of over 300,000 orphan wells, representing an environmental liability of approximately CAD 260 billion, is identified as a significant employment opportunity for transitioning workers using existing skills.
• A just transition must be participatory, ensuring workers are involved in design and planning, and must address 'workers' assets' such as homes and land in affected communities to prevent them from shouldering the entire burden.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (2018). A Dialogue on a Just and Managed Transition to a Paris-Aligned Low-Carbon Future. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/just-managed-transitions-paris-aligned-future.pdf

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. A Dialogue on a Just and Managed Transition to a Paris-Aligned Low-Carbon Future. 2018. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/just-managed-transitions-paris-aligned-future.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=A Dialogue on a Just and Managed Transition to a Paris-Aligned Low-Carbon Future |date=August 2018 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/just-managed-transitions-paris-aligned-future.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopment2018dialogue, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{A Dialogue on a Just and Managed Transition to a Paris-Aligned Low-Carbon Future}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2018}, month = aug, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/just-managed-transitions-paris-aligned-future.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }