Estimating Employment Effects of the Circular Economy

The document examines the transition from a linear to a circular economy, highlighting its potential to create jobs and increase GDP. It synthesizes projections from various international bodies, noting that while Europe has extensive data suggesting net job gains in recycling and services, Canada's 'environmental and clean technology' sector employs approximately 274,000 people as of 2016, though its growth lags behind the broader economy.

• The circular economy is defined as a shift from a linear "take, make, waste" model to a "closed-loop" system that emphasizes zero-waste, resource efficiency, and the decoupling of resource use from waste.
• Global employment projections by the ILO suggest that a circular economy scenario would increase worldwide employment by 0.1 per cent by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, with specific growth of roughly 50 million jobs in services and 45 million in waste management.
• In Europe, the circular economy is projected to have positive economic impacts, including a potential 0.5 per cent increase in GDP and a net addition of 700,000 jobs by shifting labor toward repair services and recycling plants, particularly in central and eastern European member countries.
• National-level estimates for potential job creation in a circular economy include 500,000 in France, 400,000 in Spain, 200,000 in the Netherlands, 150,000 in the Czech Republic, 100,000 in Sweden, and 75,000 in Finland.
• The ILO projects a net creation of 18 million green jobs by 2030, noting that while most sectors grow, petroleum refinery and crude petroleum extraction are expected to see losses of 1 million or more jobs each.
• In Canada, the 'environmental and clean technology' sector employed approximately 274,000 people in 2016 (1.5 per cent of the economy), with an average annual compensation of CAD 92,000, which is significantly higher than the economy-wide average of CAD 59,900.
• Canadian employment in the environmental and clean technology sector grew by 4.5 per cent between 2007 and 2016, which is slower than the 8.4 per cent growth seen in the total economy over the same period.

APA

Jensen-Cormier, S., Smith, R., & Vaughan, S. (2018). Estimating Employment Effects of the Circular Economy. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/employment-effects-circular-economy.pdf

Chicago

Jensen-Cormier, Steph, Robert Smith, and Scott Vaughan. Estimating Employment Effects of the Circular Economy. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2018. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/employment-effects-circular-economy.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jensen-Cormier |first1=Steph |last2=Smith |first2=Robert |last3=Vaughan |first3=Scott |title=Estimating Employment Effects of the Circular Economy |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2018 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/employment-effects-circular-economy.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jensencormier2018estimating, author = {Jensen-Cormier, Steph and Smith, Robert and Vaughan, Scott}, title = {{Estimating Employment Effects of the Circular Economy}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2018}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/employment-effects-circular-economy.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }