Impacts of Climate Change Policies on Developing Country Export Markets

The report examines the trade implications of global climate policies on developing nations, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and least developed countries (LDCs). It finds that while fossil fuel exports face significant short-to-medium term threats due to decarbonization, the transition to renewable energy creates substantial growth potential for non-ferrous metals and specialty minerals. However, the report warns that these opportunities require significant investment and economic diversification to avoid the 'resource curse'. Agricultural exports are less directly affected by energy transitions but remain vulnerable to greenhouse gas intensity standards and consumer preferences in importing markets.

• Net-zero and circular economy policies are expected to lead to a tightening market for fossil fuels, posing a significant threat to developing countries that rely heavily on these exports. In sub-Saharan Africa, 83% of total exports in 2018 were natural resource exports, with oil, gold, diamonds, natural gas, and coal as the top five items.
• The transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) is driving an increased demand for non-ferrous metals and specialty minerals. Copper is the largest metal export from sub-Saharan Africa, valued at USD 21 billion annually, while cobalt and manganese are key specialty minerals for battery production.
• Despite high reserves, developing countries face significant investment and production hurdles to capitalize on the mineral demand surge. For example, Africa holds 26% of global bauxite reserves but accounts for only 6.5% of global production.
• Certain countries exhibit extreme export dependence on fossil fuels, making them highly vulnerable to climate policies. South Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, Chad, and Congo rely on fossil fuels for more than 50% of their exports, with South Sudan's dependence reaching up to 96%.
• Agricultural exports are less directly impacted by the energy transition but are vulnerable to standards regarding the greenhouse gas intensity of imports and consumer preferences for locally produced goods.
• Circular economy policies may reduce the demand for virgin materials in the long term through recycling and repurposing, but in the short to medium term, the need for primary resources for renewables and batteries is expected to offset this trend for non-ferrous metals.
• Intra-African trade is more diversified and balanced than exports to OECD countries or China, suggesting that regional integration via the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a key strategy for economic diversification.

APA

Moerenhout, T., & Bellmann, C. (2021). Impacts of Climate Change Policies on Developing Country Export Markets. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-07/climate-change-developing-country-export-markets.pdf

Chicago

Moerenhout, Tom, and Christophe Bellmann. Impacts of Climate Change Policies on Developing Country Export Markets. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2021. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-07/climate-change-developing-country-export-markets.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Moerenhout |first1=Tom |last2=Bellmann |first2=Christophe |title=Impacts of Climate Change Policies on Developing Country Export Markets |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=July 2021 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-07/climate-change-developing-country-export-markets.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{moerenhout2021impacts, author = {Moerenhout, Tom and Bellmann, Christophe}, title = {{Impacts of Climate Change Policies on Developing Country Export Markets}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2021-07/climate-change-developing-country-export-markets.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }