Selepas Bahan Bakar Fosil: Transisi fiskal Indonesia

Indonesia has successfully reduced its fiscal reliance on oil and gas production, but continues to struggle with inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that benefit wealthy households and hinder the growth of renewable energy. While the government has diversified its economy into manufacturing and finance, contradictory policies—such as maintaining price caps on fuels and prioritizing coal for electrification—create risks of stranded assets and environmental degradation. The report argues for the complete removal of fossil fuel subsidies, the implementation of consumption-based energy taxes, and the strategic investment of resource rents into social safety nets and renewable energy infrastructure to ensure a just transition.

• Indonesia's fiscal dependence on upstream oil and gas production decreased significantly from 35% of total government revenue (7% of GDP) in 2001 to 6% (less than 1% of GDP) by 2016.
• Between 2014 and 2016, the average annual government revenue from fossil fuel production (Rp 190 trillion or USD 16 billion) was roughly equal to the average annual subsidies provided for fuel and electricity consumption.
• Fossil fuel subsidies in Indonesia are regressive and inefficient, disproportionately benefiting the wealthiest 20% of the population, whose share of subsidies increased from 44% in 2004 to 50% in 2014.
• Indonesia faces a significant risk of stranded assets, with estimates suggesting between USD 200 billion and USD 300 billion in fossil fuel assets are at risk, primarily concentrated in the upstream sector.
• The government's target to increase the share of new and renewable energy (EBT) in the national energy mix from 7% in 2015 to 23% by 2025 has faced difficulties due to land permit issues, opposition from coal suppliers, and a lack of fiscal incentives.
• The 2015 removal of fuel subsidies resulted in savings of Rp 211 trillion (USD 15.6 billion), which were reallocated toward social safety nets, infrastructure, and village funds.
• Indonesia's consumption taxes on fuel (VAT and motor vehicle fuel taxes) are insufficient, generating only about one-third of the value of the fuel and electricity subsidies during the 2014-2016 period.
• Regional governments in Bojonegoro and Musi Banyuasin have implemented Sovereign Wealth Fund models to manage oil and gas resource rents for sustainable spending.

APA

Braithwaite, D., & Gerasimchuk, I. (2019). Selepas Bahan Bakar Fosil: Transisi fiskal Indonesia. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/beyond-fossil-fuels-indonesia-fiscal-transition-bahasa.pdf

Chicago

Braithwaite, David, and Ivetta Gerasimchuk. Selepas Bahan Bakar Fosil: Transisi fiskal Indonesia. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2019. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/beyond-fossil-fuels-indonesia-fiscal-transition-bahasa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Braithwaite |first1=David |last2=Gerasimchuk |first2=Ivetta |title=Selepas Bahan Bakar Fosil: Transisi fiskal Indonesia |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=January 2019 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/beyond-fossil-fuels-indonesia-fiscal-transition-bahasa.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{braithwaite2019selepas, author = {Braithwaite, David and Gerasimchuk, Ivetta}, title = {{Selepas Bahan Bakar Fosil: Transisi fiskal Indonesia}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2019}, month = jan, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/beyond-fossil-fuels-indonesia-fiscal-transition-bahasa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }