Navigating Inclusive Just Transitions in Indonesia

The document examines the challenges of Indonesia's transition away from coal, highlighting the severe economic risks to coal-dependent provinces and vulnerable groups. It advocates for a mixed-method approach to planning that combines quantitative economic modelling with qualitative social analysis to ensure that women, youth, and informal workers are not marginalized. Key recommendations include strategic investment in labour-intensive green sectors, tailored social protection, and the empowerment of local governments to manage the transition.

• Coal dependence is a major obstacle to Indonesia's 2030 emissions targets under the Paris Agreement, with some regencies deriving up to 80% of their gross domestic product from mining.
• Quantitative analysis indicates that coal mine closures will lead to projected economic losses in output, sectoral income, and employment, with the most severe impacts occurring in East Kalimantan Province.
• Informal workers, particularly women and youth in sectors like logistics and food service, are disproportionately vulnerable to mine closures and often lack access to reskilling, social protection, and the digital economy.
• There is a significant gap in vertical coordination, as local governments are often excluded from national energy planning despite being responsible for managing the local economic and social impacts of the transition.
• Standard quantitative economic models are insufficient for just transition planning because they fail to capture gender and social inclusion (GEDSI) impacts, necessitating a mixed-method approach that includes qualitative research.
• To mitigate economic shocks, the government should prioritize strategic investment in labour-intensive, regionally relevant sectors such as food processing, sustainable agriculture, and green construction.

APA

Vazi, B., Sepia, I., Gass, P., Sundari, R. M., Firmansyah, A. D. A., Oktavilia, S., Azyzia, S. H., & Prayogi, R. (2025). Navigating Inclusive Just Transitions in Indonesia. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-11/just-transition-coal-indonesia-summary.pdf

Chicago

Vazi, Bathandwa, Istu Sepia, Phillip Gass, Refina Muthia Sundari, Anisa Dwi Ariyani Firmansyah, Shanty Oktavilia, Siti Hilmiati Azyzia, and Ryan Prayogi. Navigating Inclusive Just Transitions in Indonesia. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2025. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-11/just-transition-coal-indonesia-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{vazi2025navigating, author = {Vazi, Bathandwa and Sepia, Istu and Gass, Phillip and Sundari, Refina Muthia and Firmansyah, Anisa Dwi Ariyani and Oktavilia, Shanty and Azyzia, Siti Hilmiati and Prayogi, Ryan}, title = {{Navigating Inclusive Just Transitions in Indonesia}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2025-11/just-transition-coal-indonesia-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }