Making the Leap

The document examines the role of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) in facilitating the shift from fossil fuels to clean energy in five emerging economies. It argues against the use of natural gas as a 'bridging fuel,' citing price volatility, the risk of stranded assets, and methane emissions. Instead, it advocates for 'leapfrogging' directly to renewables, noting that solar and wind are cost-competitive and better suited for expanding energy access in rural areas. The brief emphasizes that a gas-led transition would be economically disadvantageous and inconsistent with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal.

• Using fossil gas as a transition fuel exposes countries to significant price volatility and geopolitical risks, whereas renewables provide greater energy security. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine caused European gas prices to surge by 50% day-on-day and Asian LNG spot prices to rise by 30%.
• Renewable energy is cost-competitive with fossil fuels and offers higher job creation potential. In Indonesia and South Africa, an investment of USD 1 million in clean energy generates 103 and 66 jobs, respectively, compared to only 22 and 33 jobs for the same investment in fossil fuels.
• The JETP countries possess substantial untapped renewable potential. South Africa could realistically supply 49% of its electricity mix from renewables by 2030, while Indonesia's 2050 renewable energy target could be met by 2030 with USD 16 billion in investments.
• Renewable energy is more effective for increasing energy access in remote rural areas where grid extension is expensive. This is critical for JETP countries; for example, 29.6% of the population in Senegal and 16% in South Africa lacked electricity access in 2020.
• Investments in gas infrastructure risk becoming stranded assets as the world decarbonizes. India faces potentially USD 103 billion in stranded assets for gas pipelines alone, and gas power plants in India ran at only 23% capacity in FY 2019/2020.
• New gas infrastructure is incompatible with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. To limit warming to 1.5°C, global gas power generation capacity must decrease by more than 55% by 2035 compared to 2020 levels.
• The climate benefits of gas over coal are offset by methane leakage. Methane is 82.5 times more potent than CO2 over a 20-year horizon, and leakage must remain below 3.2% for gas plants to have lower life-cycle emissions than new coal plants.

APA

Kramer, K. (2022). Making the Leap. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-11/just-energy-transition-partnerships.pdf

Chicago

Kramer, Katherine. Making the Leap. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2022. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-11/just-energy-transition-partnerships.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kramer |first1=Katherine |title=Making the Leap |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=November 2022 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-11/just-energy-transition-partnerships.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kramer2022making, author = {Kramer, Katherine}, title = {{Making the Leap}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2022}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-11/just-energy-transition-partnerships.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }