A Thriving Future

The report analyzes 67 of the 129 measures in Canada's Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), finding that while 44% may reduce poverty, 19% could increase inequality. It highlights that CAD 10 billion in funding is tied to measures that may exacerbate inequality without social safeguards. The analysis suggests that sector-specific risks—such as 'renovictions' from building retrofits or the regressive nature of ZEV subsidies—require complementary policies like public transit expansion and national energy poverty strategies to ensure an equitable transition.

• Analysis of 67 sampled ERP measures indicates a disconnect between emissions reductions and social equity: 44% of measures may reduce poverty, but only 9% may reduce inequality, while 19% have the potential to increase inequality.
• Significant public funding is allocated to measures that could worsen social disparities; specifically, CAD 10 billion is tied to measures that may increase inequality if implemented without social safeguards.
• In the transportation sector, Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates and incentives may increase poverty and inequality because subsidies primarily benefit higher-income individuals and may allow auto firms to raise prices.
• Building retrofit programs, such as the Canada Greener Homes Grant, may reduce poverty through job creation but risk increasing long-term inequality by excluding renters and potentially driving 'renovictions' and higher housing prices.
• Decarbonizing the oil and gas sector, including through emissions caps, has a high potential to decrease poverty by creating stable jobs and reducing health burdens on vulnerable and Indigenous communities.
• Electricity sector measures show divergent impacts: renewable energy production may increase inequality if costs are passed to consumers, whereas transmission and off-grid electrification tend to reduce poverty, especially in remote communities.
• Canada's carbon pricing federal backstop generally avoids negative poverty impacts because revenues are redistributed to households via Climate Action Incentive payments, though Indigenous Peoples still face disproportionate administrative burdens.
• Cross-sectoral funding mechanisms, accounting for CAD 89 billion of the sampled funding, lack transparent equity-related conditions and require safeguards such as conditional support based on worker protections.

APA

Soubry, B., Dusyk, N., & Corkal, V. (2023). A Thriving Future. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-10/harnessing-emissions-reduction-plan-canada.pdf

Chicago

Soubry, Bernard, Nichole Dusyk, and Vanessa Corkal. A Thriving Future. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2023. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-10/harnessing-emissions-reduction-plan-canada.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Soubry |first1=Bernard |last2=Dusyk |first2=Nichole |last3=Corkal |first3=Vanessa |title=A Thriving Future |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2023 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-10/harnessing-emissions-reduction-plan-canada.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{soubry2023thriving, author = {Soubry, Bernard and Dusyk, Nichole and Corkal, Vanessa}, title = {{A Thriving Future}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-10/harnessing-emissions-reduction-plan-canada.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }