A Thriving Future

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) evaluates Canada's 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) and Budget 2022 to determine how climate policies impact poverty and inequality. Analyzing a sample of 67 measures, the report finds that while many policies reduce emissions, they do not automatically produce positive social outcomes and some may even exacerbate systemic inequality without specific social safeguards.

• The analysis of 67 sampled measures from the ERP and Budget 2022 indicates that emissions reduction policies do not inherently guarantee positive social impacts. While 44% of the sampled measures may reduce poverty, only 9% may reduce inequality, suggesting that structural inequalities in Canada persist regardless of decarbonization efforts.
• Certain climate measures risk increasing social vulnerability. Specifically, 19% of the sampled measures may increase inequality and 4% may increase poverty. For example, the Canada Green Homes Grant may increase inequality in the long term by raising housing prices and not protecting tenants from rent hikes.
• A significant amount of public funding is tied to measures with potential negative social risks. Approximately CAD 10 billion in funding is linked to measures that could increase inequality if implemented without complementary social safeguards.
• In the transportation sector, Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates and purchase incentives may increase poverty and inequality. Subsidies primarily benefit higher-income individuals who would have purchased ZEVs regardless, and auto firms may raise prices to capture subsidy value.
• Decarbonizing the oil and gas sector, such as through emissions caps, has a high potential to decrease poverty by creating well-paying jobs and reducing health burdens for vulnerable and Indigenous communities most exposed to pollution.
• Building retrofit programs, including the Canada Green Buildings Strategy and Canada Greener Homes Grant, tend to decrease poverty but increase long-term inequality because they are largely accessible only to wealthier homeowners and lack protections for renters against 'renovictions'.
• Electricity sector measures have varied impacts: renewable energy production can increase inequality if costs are passed to consumers, whereas transmission and off-grid electrification generally reduce poverty, especially when targeting remote or low-income communities.
• Canada's carbon pricing system largely avoids poverty pitfalls because revenues are redistributed to households via Climate Action Incentive payments. However, Indigenous Peoples remain disproportionately affected due to administrative delays and low tax filing rates.
• Cross-sectoral funding mechanisms, such as the Canada Growth Fund and the Net Zero Accelerator Initiative, represent nearly half of the sampled funding (CAD 89 billion) but often lack transparent equity-related funding conditions.
• The report recommends that the government integrate poverty and inequality analysis into the GBA+ (gender-based analysis plus) framework, scale up 'win-win' policies like the National Housing Strategy, and make funding for private companies conditional on worker protections and retraining.

APA

Soubry, B., Dusyk, N., & Corkal, V. (2023). A Thriving Future. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-10/harnessing-emissions-reduction-plan-canada.pdf

Chicago

Soubry, Bernard, Nichole Dusyk, and Vanessa Corkal. A Thriving Future. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2023. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-10/harnessing-emissions-reduction-plan-canada.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Soubry |first1=Bernard |last2=Dusyk |first2=Nichole |last3=Corkal |first3=Vanessa |title=A Thriving Future |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2023 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-10/harnessing-emissions-reduction-plan-canada.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{soubry2023thriving, author = {Soubry, Bernard and Dusyk, Nichole and Corkal, Vanessa}, title = {{A Thriving Future}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2023-10/harnessing-emissions-reduction-plan-canada.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }