Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0

This policy brief by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) outlines ambition benchmarks for the third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025. It argues that to align with the 1.5 °C target, countries must commit to tripling renewable energy capacity, phasing out fossil fuel production, and eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, while ensuring a just and equitable transition.

• To maintain the 1.5 °C target, no new coal mines or oil and gas fields can be opened. Global production must decrease significantly by 2050, with coal declining by 95% and oil and gas by at least 65%.
• There is a significant 'production gap' because many major fossil fuel producers plan to increase production, and most of their current NDCs explicitly state that production will continue or increase.
• Global renewable energy capacity must triple and energy efficiency improvements must double by 2030. Regions starting from a low base, specifically the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, will need to grow their capacity at a faster rate, with sub-Saharan Africa requiring substantial international climate finance.
• Fossil fuel subsidies reached USD 1.5 trillion in 2022. Removing these subsidies could reduce total global greenhouse gas emissions by up to 10% by 2030, yet they are rarely addressed in NDCs; only 29 of 198 parties mentioned them, and only 15 made a commitment to reform.
• In 2023, fossil fuel subsidies within the G20 were more than three times the value of the support provided for renewable energy.
• The IISD recommends that G7 countries and other advanced economies commit to eliminating all fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, while all other countries should do so by 2030 or sooner.

APA

Jones, N., Parra, P. Y., Kuehl, J., Sharma, S., & Laan, T. (2024). Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-12/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-ndc.pdf

Chicago

Jones, Natalie, Paola Yanguas Parra, Jonas Kuehl, Shruti Sharma, and Tara Laan. Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2024. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-12/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-ndc.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Natalie |last2=Parra |first2=Paola Yanguas |last3=Kuehl |first3=Jonas |last4=Sharma |first4=Shruti |last5=Laan |first5=Tara |title=Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0 |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=December 2024 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-12/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-ndc.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2024fossil, author = {Jones, Natalie and Parra, Paola Yanguas and Kuehl, Jonas and Sharma, Shruti and Laan, Tara}, title = {{Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2024}, month = dec, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-12/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-ndc.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }