Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0

The policy brief outlines three critical benchmarks for 1.5 °C-aligned NDCs: tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, phasing out new fossil fuel projects with production declines of 65-95% by 2050, and eliminating fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 for G7 nations and 2030 for others. It highlights a significant 'production gap' where major producers plan to increase output despite climate imperatives. The authors recommend that new NDCs include quantitative phase-out targets, commitments to no new exploration licenses, and national roadmaps for subsidy reform that prioritize social protection and clean energy investment.

• To align with the 1.5 °C target, there is no room for new coal mines or oil and gas fields. Coal production must decline by 95% by 2050, while oil and gas production must decrease by at least 65% by 2050, and potentially up to 100% in some scenarios.
• A 'production gap' exists because many major fossil fuel producers plan to increase production in the coming decades, and most of their current NDCs explicitly state that production will continue or increase.
• Global renewable energy capacity must triple and energy efficiency improvements must double by 2030. Regions starting from a low base, specifically the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, will need to increase capacity at a faster rate, with the latter requiring substantial international climate finance.
• Fossil fuel subsidies reached USD 1.5 trillion in 2022. Removing these subsidies could reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by up to 10% by 2030. In 2023, G20 fossil fuel subsidies were more than three times the value of support for renewable energy.
• Current NDCs largely neglect fossil fuel subsidy reform; only 29 of 198 parties mentioned them, and only 15 made an actual commitment to reform.
• The authors recommend that G7 and other advanced economies commit to eliminating all fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, while all other countries should do so by 2030.

APA

Jones, N., Parra, P. Y., Kuehl, J., Sharma, S., & Laan, T. (2024). Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-12/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-ndc.pdf

Chicago

Jones, Natalie, Paola Yanguas Parra, Jonas Kuehl, Shruti Sharma, and Tara Laan. Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2024. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-12/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-ndc.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Natalie |last2=Parra |first2=Paola Yanguas |last3=Kuehl |first3=Jonas |last4=Sharma |first4=Shruti |last5=Laan |first5=Tara |title=Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0 |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=December 2024 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-12/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-ndc.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2024fossil, author = {Jones, Natalie and Parra, Paola Yanguas and Kuehl, Jonas and Sharma, Shruti and Laan, Tara}, title = {{Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2024}, month = dec, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-12/fossil-fuel-subsidy-reform-ndc.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }