Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research – IDRC Grant: Land use, biofuels and rural development in the La Plata Basin

This report analyzes the impact of the 'Green-Blue County Program' on forest cover in 28 selected counties in São Paulo State, Brazil, amidst the expansion of sugarcane plantations. Using multiple and simple linear regression models, the study examines whether this voluntary environmental policy effectively prevents deforestation caused by the growth of the biofuels industry between 2005 and 2009.

• The 'Green-Blue County Program', established in 2007 by the São Paulo State government, is a voluntary environmental policy aimed at improving environmental management efficiency and society involvement at the county level through 10 specific directives.
• In the counties of São José do Rio Preto (SJRP) and Ipiguá, sugarcane expansion has primarily replaced pasture. SJRP, which joined the Green-Blue County Program, saw pasture areas drop from 71% in 1988 to 41% in 2008, with an increase in forest cover (14%), whereas Ipiguá, which did not join, saw a smaller decrease in pasture and a decrease in forest area.
• A Multiple Regression Model (MRM) analyzing 28 counties between 2005 and 2009 found that the chosen socioeconomic and environmental variables explained 65.3% of the variability in forest cover, but the model lacked consistency in explaining the effectiveness of the Green-Blue County program. Only the number of enrolled students showed a statistically significant relationship at a 95% confidence level.
• Simple Linear Regression (SLR) identified four statistically significant variables explaining forest cover changes, each accounting for less than 20% of the variability: Value added by Sugar cane production, Value added by agriculture and livestock, number of Cows, and Sugar cane harvested area.
• Comparative analysis suggests that Green-Blue counties experienced more consistent forest preservation and restoration, higher rural credit, and greater economic value added by sugarcane, industry, and services compared to non-green counties, where forest losses were more intense.
• The study identifies several limitations of the Green-Blue County Program's impact on forest cover, including the fact that only two of its ten policies (Recovery of Riparian Vegetation and Urban Tree) directly affect forest cover, and these are assigned relatively low weights (0.8 and 0.5 respectively) in the program's evaluation index.
• Legal limitations were the primary constraint for sugarcane expansion in the study area, with 48% of the area located within Protection Areas or Conservation Units.

APA

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (n.d.). Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research – IDRC Grant: Land use, biofuels and rural development in the La Plata Basin. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Final_report_IDRC_Ballester.pdf

Chicago

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research – IDRC Grant: Land use, biofuels and rural development in the La Plata Basin. n.d. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Final_report_IDRC_Ballester.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |title=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research – IDRC Grant: Land use, biofuels and rural development in the La Plata Basin |url=https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Final_report_IDRC_Ballester.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{interamericaninstituteforglobalchangeresearchndinteramerican, author = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}}, title = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research – IDRC Grant: Land use, biofuels and rural development in the La Plata Basin }}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, url = {https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Final_report_IDRC_Ballester.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }