Blue-Green Municipalities: Economic analysis of selected counties in São Paulo State

The report analyzes the impact of the Green-Blue County Program on forest cover in 28 selected counties in São Paulo State, Brazil, amidst expanding sugarcane production. Using multiple and simple linear regression models, the study examines the relationship between forest cover changes and various socioeconomic, agricultural, and policy indicators. While the quantitative models showed limited statistical significance in explaining forest cover variability, the analysis suggests that 'green' certified counties generally experienced higher forest preservation and restoration compared to 'non-green' counties. The report concludes that the program's broad scope and the low weighting of forest-specific directives may limit its direct impact on vegetation cover, and suggests that more targeted policies and primary data collection are needed to better understand land use drivers.

• The Green-Blue County Program, established in 2007, is a voluntary environmental policy in São Paulo state with 10 directives aimed at improving environmental management and society involvement.
• A comparison of two specific counties showed that São José do Rio Preto (SJRP), which joined the Green County Project, saw pasture areas decrease from 71% in 1988 to 41% in 2008, with forest cover increasing by 14%. In contrast, Ipiguá, which did not join, saw pasture decrease by only 4% and forests by 3% over the same period, while sugarcane increased by 6.6%.
• Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis of 28 counties found that the selected independent variables explained 65.3% of the observed variability in forest cover, but the model lacked consistency in explaining the effectiveness of the Green-Blue County program. Only the number of enrolled students showed a statistically significant relationship at a 95% confidence level.
• Simple Linear Regression (SLR) identified four statistically significant variables for explaining forest cover changes, though each explained less than 20% of the variability: Value added by Sugar cane production, Value added by agriculture and livestock, number of Cows, and Sugar cane harvested area.
• On average, Green-Blue certified counties exhibited more consistent forest preservation and restoration, higher rural credit, and greater economic value added by sugarcane, industry, and services compared to non-green counties.
• The study identifies that legal limitations were the primary constraint for sugarcane expansion, with 48% of the study area located within Protection Areas or Conservation Units.

APA

Filho, J. V. C., Bartholomeu, D. B., Rosa, M. J., Aversa, F., & Traldi, M. (n.d.). Blue-Green Municipalities: Economic analysis of selected counties in São Paulo State. Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Final_report_IDRC_Ballester.pdf

Chicago

Filho, José Vicente Caixeta, Daniela Bacchi Bartholomeu, Murilo José Rosa, Fernando Aversa, and Marcela Traldi. Blue-Green Municipalities: Economic analysis of selected counties in São Paulo State. Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, n.d. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Final_report_IDRC_Ballester.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Filho |first1=José Vicente Caixeta |last2=Bartholomeu |first2=Daniela Bacchi |last3=Rosa |first3=Murilo José |last4=Aversa |first4=Fernando |last5=Traldi |first5=Marcela |title=Blue-Green Municipalities: Economic analysis of selected counties in São Paulo State |publisher=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |url=https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Final_report_IDRC_Ballester.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{filhondbluegreen, author = {Filho, José Vicente Caixeta and Bartholomeu, Daniela Bacchi and Rosa, Murilo José and Aversa, Fernando and Traldi, Marcela}, title = {{Blue-Green Municipalities: Economic analysis of selected counties in São Paulo State}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, url = {https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Final_report_IDRC_Ballester.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }