The EU’s 2040 climate target: emit now, remove later

The EU's 2040 climate target aims for a 90% net reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels. However, the author contends that this target is a dilution of ambition because it allows 5% of the reduction to be met through international carbon credits and relies on a 'net' framework rather than separate targets for emissions reductions and carbon removals. This design creates a risk of 'mitigation deterrence,' where the expectation of future carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies—such as BECCS and DACCS—justifies slower near-term decarbonization. Despite broad stakeholder support for separate targets, including from some business associations and CDR developers, the European Commission opted for a single net target to simplify governance and maintain industrial competitiveness. The document warns that integrating CDR into the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) could further allow large emitters to avoid direct cuts.

• The EU's 2040 climate target sets a net reduction goal of 90% compared to 1990 levels, but allows for 5% of this to be achieved via international carbon credits, reducing the required domestic effort to 85%.
• The use of a single net target instead of separate targets for reductions and removals creates 'mitigation deterrence,' where the promise of future carbon dioxide removal (CDR) leads to delayed or reduced direct emission cuts.
• There is significant uncertainty regarding the scalability of novel CDR technologies; BECCS may threaten biodiversity and food security due to land-use requirements in the Global South, while DACCS remains energy-intensive and costly.
• Research into the EU's 2040 process indicates that a clear majority of stakeholders—including NGOs, research organizations, and many business associations—supported the separation of emission reduction and removal targets.
• Opposition to target separation is dominated by business entities, specifically fossil fuel companies, the chemical sector, and energy-intensive industries, who represent 81.2% of those advocating for a net target.
• The European Commission rejected separate targets in favor of a single net target to simplify climate governance, reduce regulatory burdens, and address concerns over industrial competitiveness and energy-price shocks.
• Integrating permanent CDR into the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) risks allowing the oil and gas industry to use scarce removal capacity to compensate for emissions rather than prioritizing truly hard-to-abate sectors.

APA

Velez, A. B. E. S. M. N. (2026). The EU’s 2040 climate target: emit now, remove later. Green European Journal. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/the-eus-2040-climate-target-emit-now-remove-later/

Chicago

Velez, Alina Brad, Etienne Schneider, Marc Necker. The EU’s 2040 climate target: emit now, remove later. Green European Journal, 2026. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/the-eus-2040-climate-target-emit-now-remove-later/.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Velez |first1=Alina Brad, Etienne Schneider, Marc Necker |title=The EU’s 2040 climate target: emit now, remove later |publisher=Green European Journal |date=11 February 2026 |url=https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/the-eus-2040-climate-target-emit-now-remove-later/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{velez2026eus, author = {Velez, Alina Brad, Etienne Schneider, Marc Necker}, title = {{The EU’s 2040 climate target: emit now, remove later}}, publisher = {Green European Journal}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/the-eus-2040-climate-target-emit-now-remove-later/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }