L’avenir des villes : quatre scénarios

The author argues that the traditional vision of urban abundance is no longer realistic given systemic risks. By synthesizing theories from David Holmgren and the authors of 'Resilient Cities', the text outlines four potential futures: the Ecotechnic city (successful green transition), the Ecovillage city (radical semi-ruralization), the Enclaved city (authoritarian divide), and the Collapsed city (systemic breakdown). The author suggests that industrialized cities, including those in Europe, may soon reach a 'peak of urbanity' requiring a shift toward depopulation and economic relocalization.

• Cities face significant external threats, including climate change, resource shortages, and pollution. The UN reports that over 60% of cities with more than 750,000 inhabitants are exposed to at least one major risk, and the 2015 IPCC report warns that climate shocks could disrupt industrial food systems that feed most European cities.
• Internal threats to cities include the vulnerability of aging infrastructure and social instability. In OECD countries, many transport, electricity, and water distribution networks are over 50 years old and operating beyond maximum capacity, making them susceptible to systemic failure from single events like floods or attacks.
• The 'Ecotechnic city' scenario describes a successful transition to a distributed renewable energy network and regional economies. This path is only possible if a city already possesses resilient infrastructure and avoids major political or social shocks.
• The 'Ecovillage city' scenario involves a brutal global economic collapse caused by the rapid decline of resources like oil and gas. This leads to massive urban exodus and the creation of resilient local communities based on agroecology and permaculture, effectively semi-ruralizing the city.
• The 'Enclaved city' scenario occurs when a slow energy decline allows authoritarian structures to maintain power. This results in a divided city where wealthy elites live in secure, high-tech islands of opulence while the poor live in slums or semi-rural zones with limited resource access.
• The 'Collapsed city' scenario is the result of simultaneous rapid economic collapse and severe environmental impacts. This leads to total systemic breakdown, where populations flee or survive in small, isolated 'lifeboats' led by local warlords.
• Industrialized cities, specifically in Europe, may experience a 'peak of urbanity' in the coming decade, meaning the current trajectory of ultra-urbanization is no longer sustainable and must be replaced by depopulation and relocalization.

APA

Servigne, P. (2017). L’avenir des villes : quatre scénarios. Green European Journal. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/lavenir-des-villes-quatre-scenarios/

Chicago

Servigne, Pablo. L’avenir des villes : quatre scénarios. Green European Journal, 2017. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/lavenir-des-villes-quatre-scenarios/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Servigne |first1=Pablo |title=L’avenir des villes : quatre scénarios |publisher=Green European Journal |date=27 November 2017 |url=https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/lavenir-des-villes-quatre-scenarios/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{servigne2017lavenir, author = {Servigne, Pablo}, title = {{L’avenir des villes : quatre scénarios}}, institution = {Green European Journal}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/lavenir-des-villes-quatre-scenarios/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }