Should European Green Parties go into government?

The author examines the electoral impact of government participation for European Green parties, arguing that while simple 'before and after' comparisons often show a drop in vote share, this is frequently a reversion to a party's base performance rather than a punishment for governing. The analysis finds no significant correlation between electoral outcomes and the number of portfolios held, party ideology, or the ideology of coalition partners. However, a strong link is identified between 'defecting' (leaving government early) and poor election results, suggesting that internal divisions and perceived incompetence during premature exits lead to voter punishment.

• Simple comparisons of vote shares immediately before and after government terms often show a decline; in a study of 17 Green governments, 12 resulted in a drop in popularity, with an average vote share decrease of 1.19 per cent.
• When measuring the 'relative vote share' (the percentage of the percentage lost), parties lost an average of 21.76 per cent of their votes between entering and leaving government, with over a third of parties losing more than half of their votes.
• Comparing post-government results to a party's 'base performance' (the average of the three preceding elections) reveals a smaller average loss of 3.8 per cent, suggesting that the initial vote surge upon entering government is often an unusually high performance rather than the post-government result being unusually low.
• There is no observed correlation between a party's electoral performance and the number of ministerial portfolios it holds, as evidenced by both the Swedish Greens and Danish Socialists holding eight ministries but failing to fulfill key promises.
• Neither the ideology of the Green party (left-right spectrum) nor the ideology of its coalition partners (e.g., conservatives vs. leftists) shows a consistent correlation with subsequent electoral performance.
• Leaving a government coalition prematurely ('defecting') is strongly linked to poor electoral results; defecting parties lost an average of 12.3 per cent of their base support, compared to a loss of only 0.2 per cent for those completing their full mandate.

APA

Currie, S. (2022). Should European Green Parties go into government? Green European Journal. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/should-european-green-parties-go-into-government/

Chicago

Currie, Sean. Should European Green Parties go into government? Green European Journal, 2022. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/should-european-green-parties-go-into-government/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Currie |first1=Sean |title=Should European Green Parties go into government? |publisher=Green European Journal |date=31 March 2022 |url=https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/should-european-green-parties-go-into-government/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{currie2022should, author = {Currie, Sean}, title = {{Should European Green Parties go into government?}}, institution = {Green European Journal}, year = {2022}, month = mar, url = {https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/should-european-green-parties-go-into-government/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }