LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT

The report identifies significant growth potential in South Africa's large-scale renewable energy sector, driven by the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019 and the removal of licensing thresholds for private generation. While public procurement via the REIPPPP has historically led the market, grid constraints in the Northern and Western Cape now limit project viability. Private procurement is surging, particularly among energy-intensive mining companies. The report also highlights emerging opportunities in battery energy storage systems (BESS), green hydrogen, and local manufacturing of components, while noting the systemic risk posed by Eskom's debt and the ongoing unbundling of the national utility.

• South Africa's electricity supply is heavily dependent on coal, which accounted for 80.1% of the electricity contribution in 2022, while large-scale renewable energy capacity represents approximately 12% of total generation capacity.
• The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019 targets a renewable energy capacity of 33% by 2030, with a future pipeline for new additional capacity between 2023 and 2030 including 12,800 MW of wind and 5,000 MW of solar PV.
• Grid capacity constraints are a major barrier to development; Eskom has confirmed that grid capacity in the Northern Cape is exhausted and the Western Cape network is at a saturation point, which led to only 6 of 56 bids in REIPPPP Bid Window 6 receiving preferred bidder status.
• Private sector generation has grown rapidly following the removal of the 100 MW licensing threshold in December 2022, allowing embedded generation facilities to be exempted from licensing regardless of capacity.
• The mining sector is a primary driver of private procurement, with a reported pipeline of renewable energy projects exceeding 2 GW, estimated to cost between R30 billion and R40 billion.
• Renewable energy costs have declined significantly over the last decade, with solar PV tariffs dropping by more than 88% and onshore wind by 68% since 2012.
• Eskom is undergoing an unbundling process into three subsidiaries—Generation, Transmission, and Distribution—to improve transparency and accountability, though its R400 billion debt remains a critical risk to operation.
• Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are emerging as a key technology to manage demand and grid stability, with IRP 2019 allocating 2,088 MW by 2030.
• Green hydrogen represents a long-term potential opportunity, with estimates suggesting South Africa could produce 6 to 13 million tons by 2050, requiring between 140 GW and 300 GW of renewable energy.
• Local manufacturing opportunities exist for solar PV (modules, frames, inverters) and wind (towers, nacelle assembly), supported by the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM).

APA

Terblanche, U., & Radmore, J. (2023). LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT. GreenCape. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/RENEWABLE_ENERGY_MIR_2023_DIGITAL_SINGLES.pdf

Chicago

Terblanche, Ulrich, and Jack Radmore. LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT. GreenCape, 2023. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/RENEWABLE_ENERGY_MIR_2023_DIGITAL_SINGLES.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Terblanche |first1=Ulrich |last2=Radmore |first2=Jack |title=LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT |publisher=GreenCape |date=2023 |url=https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/RENEWABLE_ENERGY_MIR_2023_DIGITAL_SINGLES.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{terblanche2023largescale, author = {Terblanche, Ulrich and Radmore, Jack}, title = {{LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT}}, institution = {GreenCape}, year = {2023}, url = {https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/RENEWABLE_ENERGY_MIR_2023_DIGITAL_SINGLES.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }