PEDAL TO THE METAL

The report finds that the global steel industry is not on track to meet IEA Net-zero 2050 targets, as the shift from carbon-intensive BF-BOF to cleaner EAF technology is too slow. Current capacity under construction is more heavily weighted toward BF-BOF than the existing operating fleet. Asia, particularly China and India, is the primary hotspot for new BF-BOF capacity. This trend creates a significant stranded asset risk estimated between 345 and 518 billion USD. Additionally, the report highlights that accounting for coal mine methane could increase the sector's reported emissions footprint by 27%.

• The global transition from Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) to Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking is slower than required by the IEA’s Net-zero 2050 report. While 31% of operating capacity uses EAF, only 28% of capacity currently under construction uses EAF. To align with targets, EAF capacity should reach 37% by 2030 and 53% by 2050.
• Steel capacity development is heavily concentrated in Asia. China and India are projected to account for over 66% of new steelmaking capacity, with China at approximately 36% (216 mtpa) and India at 30% (179 mtpa). Specifically, 80% of the BF-BOF capacity under development is planned for China (158 mtpa) and India (123 mtpa).
• The risk of stranded assets in the steel industry is significantly higher than previous estimates of $47–70 billion. If all proposed or under-construction BF-BOF capacity is developed, the risk is estimated between 345 and 518 billion USD due to national carbon neutrality commitments.
• The reported emissions footprint of the steel industry may be underestimated by 27% (approximately 1 Gt CO2-e) because coal mine methane emissions from metallurgical coal mining are typically not factored into assessments.
• A critical window for decarbonization exists as 77% of the blast furnace (BF) fleet in the Global Steel Plant Tracker (1,090 Mt) will reach the end of its working life and reinvestment cycle by 2030. China accounts for 730 Mt of this capacity.

APA

Swalec, C. (2022). PEDAL TO THE METAL. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2022_11.pdf

Chicago

Swalec, Caitlin. PEDAL TO THE METAL. Global Energy Monitor, 2022. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2022_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Swalec |first1=Caitlin |title=PEDAL TO THE METAL |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=June 2022 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2022_11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{swalec2022pedal, author = {Swalec, Caitlin}, title = {{PEDAL TO THE METAL}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2022_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }