Split Transition: BRICS Breaks Renewable Records and Fossil Records Too

The BRICS nations experienced a record-breaking expansion of power capacity in 2025, characterized by a simultaneous surge in both fossil fuel and renewable energy installations. While solar and wind additions reached historic highs, primarily driven by China and India, fossil fuel capacity also saw its largest net annual increase on record. This 'split transition' is marked by a trend where coal capacity continues to grow even as coal-fired generation declines in leading nations due to the rapid scaling of renewables.

• In 2025, the BRICS nations saw the largest power capacity expansion on record, with record-breaking additions across coal, oil, gas, solar, and wind. Fossil power additions reached 125 GW, resulting in a record net annual increase of 115 GW after retirements, which is approximately 11% higher than the previous peak in 2015.
• Renewable energy deployment surged in 2025, with solar and wind additions totaling 497 GW. This growth was heavily concentrated in China and India, which together accounted for roughly 87% of all new solar and wind additions in the bloc.
• China drove the majority of fossil fuel expansion in 2025, recording its highest-ever oil and gas plant capacity additions and its largest coal plant capacity additions in over a decade. China commissioned 78 GW of coal capacity, representing 84% of all new coal capacity across the BRICS.
• Despite increasing capacity, coal utilization is declining in several BRICS nations. In China, utilization peaked ten years ago and has mostly declined; India has seen a two-year decline in coal utilization, and South Africa has experienced a downward trend for two decades.
• The development pipeline for utility-scale solar and wind in the BRICS grew by about 25% in 2025 to reach 2,317 GW. This pipeline is approximately 2.5 times larger than the 927 GW pipeline for fossil fuel projects, which grew by 12%.
• In India, 2025 was a turning point where coal-fired generation fell by approximately 3% year-on-year, the only such decline in two decades outside of the 2019-2020 period. This was driven by record renewable output and milder temperatures that tempered electricity demand growth.
• Energy transition progress is uneven across the bloc. While China and India lead in renewables, Russia and Iran's future capacity additions remain overwhelmingly fossil-based, with fossil projects outnumbering utility-scale solar and wind projects by roughly 7 to 1.

APA

Norman, J. (n.d.). Split Transition: BRICS Breaks Renewable Records and Fossil Records Too. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/split-transition-brics-breaks-renewable-records-and-fossil-records-too

Chicago

Norman, James. Split Transition: BRICS Breaks Renewable Records and Fossil Records Too. Global Energy Monitor, n.d. https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/split-transition-brics-breaks-renewable-records-and-fossil-records-too.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Norman |first1=James |title=Split Transition: BRICS Breaks Renewable Records and Fossil Records Too |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/split-transition-brics-breaks-renewable-records-and-fossil-records-too |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{normanndsplit, author = {Norman, James}, title = {{Split Transition: BRICS Breaks Renewable Records and Fossil Records Too}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/split-transition-brics-breaks-renewable-records-and-fossil-records-too}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }