Adapting tuna-dependent Pacific Island communities and economies to climate change

The programme addresses the dual threat of coral reef degradation, which reduces local food security, and the eastward migration of tuna stocks, which threatens the government revenues of tuna-dependent Pacific Island nations. It proposes two main components: scaling up National Fish Aggregating Device (FAD) programmes to help coastal communities transition from reef fishing to tuna fishing, and developing an 'advance warning system' (AWS) using genetic population analysis and modelling to predict tuna redistribution. This AWS is intended to empower nations to negotiate for the retention of historical fishing rights in international waters. The total indicative cost is USD 120,945,000, with USD 70,245,000 requested from the Green Climate Fund.

• Climate change is projected to reduce the production of coral reef fish in the Pacific Island region by 20–50% by 2050 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, primarily due to ocean warming and acidification causing coral bleaching and reduced structural complexity.
• Tuna resources in equatorial areas are expected to shift progressively eastward as the ocean warms, which is predicted to reduce the average annual combined tuna catch from the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of tuna-dependent Pacific Island countries by 20% (range 10%−30%) by 2050 under RCP8.5.
• The redistribution of tuna threatens the economies of nine countries, including PNA members and the Cook Islands, which derive an average of 32% (ranging from 4% to 70%) of their non-aid government revenue from tuna-fishing access fees.
• By 2050 under RCP8.5, the redistribution of tuna is projected to cause an average annual loss of approximately $90 million (ranging from $40 million to $140 million) in fishing access fees for these nine countries.
• To address food security gaps caused by reef degradation, the region will require an additional 75,000 tonnes of fish per year by 2035; this represents only 6% of the total annual tuna catch from the region.
• The programme will implement National FAD Programmes to enable small-scale fishers to transition fishing effort from degrading coral reefs to tuna, which also provides a co-benefit of reducing overfishing pressure on herbivorous reef fish.
• An 'advance warning system' (AWS) will be developed to provide tuna distribution forecasts in 1–10 year timeframes, replacing the current 30–50 year range, by using genetic population analysis to create 'resource maps' of tuna stocks.
• The AWS is intended to provide the scientific evidence necessary for Pacific Island countries to negotiate the retention of rights to historical levels of tuna catch, even as fish move into high-seas areas.

APA

Green Climate Fund (2021). Adapting tuna-dependent Pacific Island communities and economies to climate change. https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/22230-adapting-pacific-island-tuna-fisheries-climate-change.pdf

Chicago

Green Climate Fund. Adapting tuna-dependent Pacific Island communities and economies to climate change. 2021. https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/22230-adapting-pacific-island-tuna-fisheries-climate-change.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Green Climate Fund |title=Adapting tuna-dependent Pacific Island communities and economies to climate change |date=27 May 2021 |url=https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/22230-adapting-pacific-island-tuna-fisheries-climate-change.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{greenclimatefund2021adapting, author = {{Green Climate Fund}}, title = {{Adapting tuna-dependent Pacific Island communities and economies to climate change}}, institution = {Green Climate Fund}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://www.greenclimate.fund/sites/default/files/document/22230-adapting-pacific-island-tuna-fisheries-climate-change.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }